jaydreb

Yeah, my sister lives in Morris County, NJ, and they do very well. They often overperform with storms where they aren’t forecast to get much because they are primary beneficiaries of the north trend that we despise so much. They got 30”+ from the Jan 28/Feb 1 storm.

So I tried to shovel a section of the sidewalk and all that was left was a sheet of ice. It’s more slippery than it was before. Better just to leave it?

I’ll let @psuhoffman and the other experts weigh in but I think it’s a bunch of things. It just seemed like even though the overall pattern was good, the little things just didn’t line up quite right when it counted. At least not for the DC metro area. 1. We just missed a good snow in December. I forget what went wrong there but it was close for us. 2. We also just missed a MECS/HECS at the end of January when the coastal formed just a bit too late for our latitude. That storm ended up dumping 30” of snow in NJ. 3. We had the weird storm last week where one wave went north and the second wave went south, leaving DC in a snowhole. It could have easily been a nice 3-6” event for us. I think there was also a storm that ended up suppressed when a Vort came out of nowhere to our NE to suppress the flow. I don’t recall the details. If we hit one or two of these then suddenly this becomes a pretty good winter. Seems like a combination of terrible luck and perhaps a slightly too warm background state.

It’s too bad we couldn’t get a decent pattern this winter.

Someone needs to make a fail video montage at the end of the winter with all the great digital snow runs within 72 hours set to music.

“Memories...like the corners of my mind. Misty watercolor memories, of the way we were.”

Welp, it was fun while it lasted.

33/14

Yeah, my post about the Para was kind of tongue in cheek. Most guidance does seem to be focusing in on 2-4/3-6 type deal for DC area, plus sleet and ice.

Sorry, I edited it so snowhole after I saw that the precip was actually fairly decent. Looks like a combination of precip and temp differences.

It’s weird. The GFS-Para jacks the DC metro area. The Euro has the same area as a snowhole.

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.

Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these? This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals.

Verbatim I would take the 3.5”, but it seems like the on the ground truth is always half of what the clownmaps show.

I’m a fan of those guys but I will be shocked if that forecast verifies for DCA.

Pretty ugly snow wise for the cities. Great if you like accumulating sleet though.

I must be reading it wrong because on WB it looks like maybe an hour of snow followed by all sleet.

It looks good, but isn’t the concern for the cities that temps are too warm at other levels besides 850?

Was it before or after the Euro started running?

About 11z in DC with the light stuff. Better stuff around 14z. Subtract an hour or two for areas out west.

Yep. This was within 72 hours of the last Weds/Thurs event.

So what is this?

Because the atmosphere will do whatever it takes to avoid giving certain areas snow? If the 850s are good, then surface will be bad. If the surface is good, then 850s will be bad. If 850s and surface are both good, then there will be a “warm nose” at 950 (or 750). Sorry for the non-scientific answer but I am a bit jaded this morning.

What’s the difference between a Trace and a Coating? Asking for a friend.

Remember this one?