Tallis Rockwell

Thank you. I didn't know.

NAM showing insane levels of Helicity over Northern LA...

Forgot the important stuff. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday. Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening. The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture, and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK, central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley.

First major outbreak of the season?

We'll have to keep waiting for that awesome volcanic winter ):

Hello! I glad to see another volcano fanatic! Unfortunately, the eruption only released 0.4 Tg of SO2 so no substantial climate effects are likely. https://twitter.com/simoncarn/status/1482612959104974848

Almost all known major volcanic winter events produced mild winters so a lot of winter weather enthusiasts are going to be mad,

For some who don't know, Tonga produced a huge eruption around a VEI 5 or 6, and if we find that this volcano has ejected a significant portion of SO2, volcanic winter is on the cards!

This season has been exciting, the past couple of weeks, however, have been boring.

Category 5 on the cards here?

he medium-range models begin the Day 4 to 8 period in good agreement. Model solutions show southwest mid-level flow from the south-central U.S. to the Northeast. An upper-level low is forecast over southern California. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front during the afternoon and evening. Although instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the front Thursday afternoon, strong deep-layer shear should be adequate for at least isolated severe storms. The severe threat should extend from northwest Texas northeastward across the Ozarks and into the lower Ohio Valley. Hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. On Friday, the models continue to be in good agreement. The solutions move the upper-level low into the Desert Southwest and have an upper-level ridge in the south-central states. The cold front is forecast to move slowly southward and may stall from the southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the day on Friday. Model forecasts suggest that thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas, where low-level moisture, deep layer shear and instability are forecast to be maximized. Although there is some spread among the GEFS members, on Saturday the deterministic solutions remain in relatively good agreement. The upper-level low is forecast to move into the Four Corners region as a mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of the approaching system, strong moisture advection is forecast in the southern Plains where a corridor of 60+ surface dewpoints appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks throughout the day. An increase in thunderstorm coverage may take place in the late afternoon and evening as instability maximizes across the region. Model forecasts show a potential for moderate instability, widespread large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks. All severe threat hazards will be possible, but the magnitude and spatial extent of the severe threat will depend upon moisture return and the eastward timing of the system. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward from the Great Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both on Sunday and on Monday. At this time, models suggest that the greatest severe threat will be located in eastern parts of the southern Plains and in the Ozarks on Sunday. The severe threat should shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. However, uncertainty concerning the timing of the system is substantial at this extended range in the forecast period.

I stop looking at this storm for 2 days and it becomes cat 5?! That's life I guess.

99.9% hurricanes are trash if you were to compare them to god-tier storms like this...

I don't know but he isn't really known for being calm and calculated.

The one of the best eyes I have ever seen.

This one crazy storm...200+mph wind gusts?

Solid B+ season. Good landfalls with some variety and plenty of impacted areas but full of junk storms. No Irma or Dorian this year.

This event will go down as one of the most under looked and underrated convective events in severe weather history.

Not all of them can be winners.

The flood threat is disconcerting to say the least, Houston hasn't filled in it's yearly flood quota after all.

I just did! I did it first!

The Beta will need to come to grips with it's position, it has too understand that not every tropical cyclone can be the best and the most important thing is to do as much as you can with what you have and ignore the mockery of others in order to pursue true happiness...

Yep and it's garbage.

I watched tons of fairly odd parents as a kid before I got into anime and comics. Too bad the show sucks now.

Can't come with a rhyme I am just too itchy...