miamarsden8

Yeah, based on all the solutions I've seen so far, southeastern Iowa is going to only get wave three, whereas northeastern and southwestern Iowa are scheduled to get hit by waves 1 and 2. If that happens and it's a linear threat, that's all well and good, but what happens if a cell develops ahead of that line? That's going to be interesting to watch. We'll need to see more info on this, but I think if there's going to be a strong tornado, based on the models I've seen, areas south of the QCA out to Galesburg and back into the Mt. Pleasant are going to be under the gun. If a cell develops there ahead of that line, I'd be concerned.

I feel like this is a storm where 1-2 degrees is going to matter immensely, and I wonder if there's a chance that these models are overdoing the temperature a tad bit. I don't deny that it's likely we will see rain in this system somewhere, but what I'm sitting here thinking is we have a few inches of snow on the ground here in Cincy, so I wonder if that will help keep the temperature cool. Upper 30s isn't necessarily hard to believe, don't get me wrong, but 1-2 degrees could be the difference between 4-6 inches of snow (the ILN office is calling for that) and a mostly rain-only event, so I'm just not certain I'm confident at this point in that 4-6 inch call. The ILN office has us reaching 39 degrees, but if snowpack affects that enough, I could see us topping at the 36 degree range. I guess TLDR, I have a hard time believing ILN after looking at these models, and while I do think that warm air bubble is going to matter and certainly will reach Kentucky in some fashion, I could see it being overdone for sure. All I know is that gradient over Cincinnati is gutwrenching. My call, if I had to make one, would be 3-6 inches, but I wouldn't bet on it. There are just too many unknowns. But it'll certainly be exciting, if nothing else, to see how it progresses through the midwest.

So what you're saying is Cincy is back in the game? LET'S GOOO! (and I'm going to hope like a weenie that this map is right; I want more snow!)

Ah, I see. The Cincinnati folks are going to be sad. Understood. Actually, it all depends on the temperature at this point, but I'm losing hope.

Cincinnati suburbs forecast: 1-2" Ryan Hall: Nah, you're wrong, it's going to be more like 3-6". Actual snowfall: 5" and counting. Normal people: Ew, snow. What is this?!?!?! Me: OH GOD YES!!!!!!!! It's a gooooood day to be a believer in snowfall! If the Bengals win, it'll be a perfect day for me. If this is an appetizer to the storm next week, I'll have hit the jackpot!

So...you're saying there's a chance this thing smacks Cincy? COME ONNNN let me have one real snowstorm here.

In northern Cincinnati around Sharonville, it's just straight up pingers. Looks like about an inch or two of sleet is on the ground, so that's a thing. This is not looking good for our snow chances.

Additionally, none of these models seem to be in agreement. It's basically 1 inch or 12 inches. Cincinnati is weird, man.

Our forecast calls are getting wild. Per weather.gov's Winter Storm Warning for us: * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to three tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph on Thursday. Then you go to weather.com's forecast: Thursday: A mix of wintry precipitation in the morning. Then periods of snow expected in the afternoon. Potential for significant icing. High 31F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow and ice accumulating 8 to 12 inches. Thursday night: Snow in the evening will transition to snow showers overnight. Some sleet or freezing rain possible. Low 18F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Then accuweather is like "yeah 1-2 inches". It's like...absurd. I've never seen forecasting like this before. In western Illinois, at least I was prepared for weenie numbers ending up depressing. This just tells me not to trust anything and just kick back and relax.

Being in Cincinnati is the worst for snowstorms because either you get a dusting, rain, or 6 inches, and it's never in between.

That's why right now, I'm still feeling like...so HRRR has 9 inches and this has 12. A 4-6 call seems safe especially since it's been pouring down rain all day. And honestly snow melt is going to make it difficult to get an accurate measurement. Even if we get 8 inches, it might look like much less if it doesn't stick quickly.

This has to be a weenie map. We would not get this lucky in Cincy to have both a real blizzard (ish - keep in mind this is 2022, and 20-30 mph gusts might approach that territory) and an AFC Championship in the same season lol

Okay, but weird thing is while this is a weenie map, it's also the second model indicating a southeast shift in the snowfall totals. Please, please, PLEASE keep coming southeast.

So, you're saying there's still a chance for me getting 6-8 inches in Cincy? :') Honestly I think we'll see 2-5 inches, it feels like it's going to be a disappointment.

Lol Euro can you not quash the remaining hope I have? Such tight gradients, such a difference between a mix, an ice storm, and a rain only event. Yikes!