I'm okay if it explodes and peaks way more north/west- as long as it then goes due east
Even if it weakens as it does, at least we'll get the training effect
Waiting to see what the GFS does, if consistent with the NW trend then I'm sold and will enjoy my 4 inches, hope for a bump with any lake enhancements that may pan out
If GFS shows correction back south or stronger, well then game on
I recall in the past, that little "mesolows" can set up out over the lake and pump moisture back into the region. Are these small/local features generally picked up on models? Or are these a as it happens type of thing?
Most cases we are focused on how much the low strengthens as it heads northeast, but in this case we're focused on how quickly a weakens and gets torn apart. Is there a precedent for this scenario as reference? or how accurate do models predict the weakening of storms?