ChiTownSnow
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Everything posted by ChiTownSnow
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Possibly some lake enhancement starting to be evident on radar returns? around western cook and dupage
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How dare he!
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He's worked hard at that.
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Would agree with the northern counties "Boon, McHenry" with adjustment down
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Seems to be some banding setting up to my SE that hopefully will interact with the feed off the lake when it arrives. Also The orientation looks to be more West to East as opposed to SW to NE. So hopefully that helps with QPF
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One problem I see with using the blended approach or average of all model approach as we closer to "nowcast" time, is that this method ignores the latest and greatest model guidence.. It's a good method when you're a day or two away but not a few hours.
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Both NAM and GFS indicate the bleeding seems to have stopped at least. Maybe wishful thinking, but I have come this far so why not.
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Confirmed..had a brief period of snow which led to a quick dusting in spots
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++ New Years Day
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Go Notre Dame!
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Idk..latest NAM looks like it'll be close
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Not sure on this one..I get the whole pac moisture feed in cold sector. But isn't there still is a warm sector to this with some sort of transport of moisture into to the cold sector, albeit short lived?
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Qpf mean has been pretty consistent for ORD. What has changed over time, has been less mixing issues and mostly all snow
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It was one of LOTs "caveats" in yesterday's AFD. As a possible scenario for lower end totals
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It is New Year's Eve
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I think ALEK needs a friendly well being check.. make sure he's doing ok
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Mostly all snow now is the difference. But it did bump qpf up slightly
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He's getting more and more bullish in his old age.
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Plumes steady at 5 at ORD with a cluster higher
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Yeah I guess waiting for the rest of the model runs before making changes? Surprised to they still posted the map instead of waiting.
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LOT snow map seems pretty bullish 4 to 8 across the metro plus lake enhancement https://www.weather.gov/lot/weatherstory
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Still can give us 2-4 + lake enhancement. I wouldn't call it a full dud
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Looses it's moisture feed as it moves further east, and as the ULL moves further away from the deformation band. I was hoping that secondary woud help continusely feeding it moisture, but doesn't look like that'll happen
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When is full sampling of models Or has that already happened?
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Overall a pretty solid hit for Chicago on 00z NAM
