ChiTownSnow
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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Gonna take a bit for the models to sort out the timing of the pattern change & cold. as well as the moderation of the initial cold. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
you have to go back a bit further .. their prediction for 15th - 20th time frame started late Nov /early Dec. i think someone actually posted it on this thread a while back . im not really bashing them, just pointing out the trend as well as the fact that he is in the hype social media business.. i think this is it. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
that mild pattern was originally the current mild pattern we are in now, to proceed return of winter around end of month.. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
yah...kinda reminds you of the old JB days?.. hehe -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th). still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Shortly after Christmas, becomes shortly after new year, becomes mid January, becomes February we will be rocking.. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
the next Joe B -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Interesting read. Could be all hype but idk..Gen Cast has already outperformed major American models "To rigorously evaluate GenCast's performance, we trained it on historical weather data up to 2018, and tested it on data from 2019. GenCast showed better forecasting skill than ECMWF’s ENS, the top operational ensemble forecasting system that many national and local decisions depend upon every day. We comprehensively tested both systems, looking at forecasts of different variables at different lead times — 1320 combinations in total. GenCast was more accurate than ENS on 97.2% of these targets, and on 99.8% at lead times greater than 36 hours." https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weather-and-the-risks-of-extreme-conditions-with-sota-accuracy/ -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Nope not much.. still there in some form on 12z. Not consistent by any means but still there -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
At this stage let's just be thankful there's a signal for a storm in the he vicinity -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I'll take it. That's where our cold comes from -
November 2024 General Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to SchaumburgStormer's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Exceeded expectations. Let's hope it's good Omen for this winter. -
November 2024 General Discussion
ChiTownSnow replied to SchaumburgStormer's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
18Z says hold my beer -
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What do we make of this ssw event in Southern hemisphere? Big deal or just noise? https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/stratospheric-warming-to-disrupt-polar-vortex-in-southern-hemisphere/1889759 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-27/nsw-antarctica-warming-over-50c/104142332