LeesburgWx

How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5

Yeah, the current heading sure looks heading directly for the mouth of the Bay/Bradenton

4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 Location: 22.7°N 87.5°W Moving: ENE at 9 mph Min pressure: 918 mb Max sustained: 165 mph We are back to Cat 5!

Full on donut

That’s a tough solution there. The goal posts have pretty much been set from just north of Tampa to Sarasota it appears as of now.

Starting to look much better on IR now

Wow, this is something. This area has been mostly spared for decades which I am sure has aided in the massive growth of development.

So we hit 180mph officially this evening. Let's say it peaked at at 185-190 before recon got in there. Let's then say Milton drops to like 165 mph during the ERC and then goes at another run over the Loop Current tomorrow and hits say 185mph. The surge already created that is being carried with it now and then combined with another peak run tomorrow (while much closer to Florida at that point), we are likely to see some exceptional surge numbers somewhere along the Florida coast upon landfall.

wow, sub 900mb is just so rare. Only 5 ever to do it in the Atlantic right?

Where is recon currently?

Not trying to hype here - this has the *potential* to change Tampa Bay. The population, development, vulnerability, and already hard impacted state from Helene makes this such a bad situation. We are talking a mega strong Category 5 hurricane's surge being potentially shoved into the Bay. Even if it weakens to a Category 3 at landfall, the surge will be unreal.

Yeah, we are going sub 900mb. This is a run for the money over the next few hours

I am in awe of what we are witnessing right now. This may be the storm that changes Tampa Bay. Up to 15 foot storm surge being forecasted now. Wow

Just stunning. I am just amazed this is moving west to east vs our typical east to west movement. The norms are being thrown out the window so often now, it seems.