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TJW014

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Everything posted by TJW014

  1. TJW014
    I think as of now, models are relying too much on the -AO and interpreting that as too much suppression.
  2. TJW014
    Sarcasm aside, the energy for Thursday is still 3000 miles away, not even ashore in the PNW yet. No balloon sampling data from that to inject into the models. We should see some of that data coming in with the 12z or 18z runs tomorrow. We have a long way to go. Not gonna know where this goes until about 48 hours lead time.
  3. TJW014
    How many times does this have to be reiterated: if it looks good 5 days out, be prepared to have the football pulled.
  4. TJW014
    Exactly. I'll gladly take 0.5" QPF, probably at a 15:1 ratio if the EPS were to verify
  5. TJW014
    Still my early thoughts, but I think this will be a good hit, most likely our biggest event for everyone in this sub, save for extreme north/west areas. Jersey Coast and LI look like the best shot for now. I still have zero care for any qpf or snow maps until today's migraine maker (ugh) gets on out of here. I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see some gradual trends to the west today.
  6. TJW014
    Really need to get today/tomorrow's slop fest/damaging wind threat out of here before the operationals become useful. What lies in wake after this weekend will show us what we're working with. Still ensemble range for now.
  7. TJW014
    We had 2" then rain with that one here lol
  8. TJW014
    Show me these same map outputs on Monday and maybe I'll bite.
  9. TJW014
    Snowing again with some ocean effect. Stick read a hair over 5"
  10. TJW014
    Back home, calling it a night. Still a moderate rate of small flakes. Closing in on 5".
  11. TJW014
    Pushing 3.5-4" now. Still coming down at a moderate rate.
  12. TJW014
    MDT/HVY rates now. Approaching 2"
  13. TJW014
    Just over an inch so far. Moderate wet snow continues.
  14. TJW014
    South wind but certainly not strong. Maybe 10 mph gusts. It's a 2 seam poly flag so it flies very easily
  15. TJW014
    Moderate rate now. Sticking instantly
  16. TJW014
    Pixie dust flurries, south end of Island Beach State Park
  17. TJW014
    Still virga here but radar is filling in nicely. Headed to the beach
  18. TJW014
    Coastal Jersey should see some ocean-effect enhancement with the ENE winds.
  19. TJW014
    NAM with over 0.5" qpf over me
  20. TJW014
    Final call is 3-4" here. Might have some issues with anything sticking initially since I'm right along the water. Truck is loaded with firewood. 4 or 5 friends coming along to the beach for BBQ and drinks. Gonna be a fun night.
  21. TJW014
    I am pleased.
  22. TJW014
    WWA issued here. 3-5". Would make for the biggest event here in 3 years if I get over 4". So long as NJ state offices don't close, the plan is for burgers and weenies over a campfire on the beach. If not, we'll be towing sleds behind the truck down some fire roads
  23. TJW014
    I think 3-4" is a good bet for me. Similar events like this so far this winter have underperformed slightly so I'll sit on the lower side of things. I do have a concern to see maybe some mixing right along the shore with that east wind developing but we'll see what happens
  24. TJW014
    Winter Storm Watch issued for me. 4-6" with localized amounts of 6-8" per Mt Holly. We'll see what happens.
  25. TJW014
    That was northern Monmouth that cashed in. We got shafted just to the south of that killer band in a subsidence zone. I measured 12" at Sandy Hook and 3 inches in Asbury Park. 1.5" at home from that one. Exit 105 - Exit 63 on the GSP has been skunked year after year. Take a look a seasonal total map this year.
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