TJW014

Will update/adjust my snow map pending the Euro. As of now, doesn't look like I'll be making any changes except maybe broadening the 4 - 7" section and maybe bumping totals a little bit more

150 miles west 48 hours prior to start time isn't "slightly" west

Amazing that we are 24 - 30 hours from go time and we still have a 150-mile spread

Snow from start to finish for everybody on the NAM.

IMO GFS is slightly overdone and Euro slightly underdone. Middle ground would be a good bet for now

A broken clock is still right 2X a day...

Has me torching in the 50s

Said f*** it and made a map. For the most part, discounting RGEM/GGEM. I believe it is too strong/amped and will cave to the SE. If it doesn't, a lot of us are going to be unhappy. Pretty confident on a rain/mix at the start for the NJ Coastal Plain (more so here) and some for E Long Island too. Otherwise, I went with a blend of GFS, Ukie, and Euro. Think it comes a bit farther west and lightly stronger/juicer than the Ukie/Euro, but not to GFS/GEM amounts. Overall think it's a good 3 - 4 - 5 inch event for most of us, except for extreme south/east spots. Given the speed of this thing, I think the upper limit is 7, maybe 8 inches somewhere just NW of 287. Aside from the coast, ratios should be increasing as the storm progresses, highest farther NW, up to 15:1. Feel free to roast, criticize, wring me by the neck, etc.

Saquon and the tush push will be neutered.

One of the reasons why the metro area is such a difficult spot for everyone to cash in. What's good for one can screw someone else.

I'd be ecstatic with the Ukie run

Paste job for here

There's the inevitable shift northwest that always happens

Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287

Still unchanged from my view of this being a rainstorm for coastal Monmouth/Ocean County + Eastern LI. Thinking the gradient line sets up along I-95/278/Belt Pkwy

Reggie with a rainstorm for NYC with the briefest changeover to snow for an hour at the end.

NAM at this range is about as useful as my girlfriend trying to decide what she wants for dinner.

I'm going to be the Debbie Downer I am and say that I expect this to be more of a rain event than a snow event here. The last place I want to be is already flirting with the R/S line 3 days out, especially given the inevitable final adjustment northwest that we always get. I fully expect a changeover to snow as the low pulls away but not after 85% of the precipitation fell as rain. This will probably be one of those Congrats Freehold Twp events

Virga overhead so far

22" out on IBSP from that one. Just my luck that I was in FL during that one

Snow, sand and Sea collide at the shore.

Barnegat Bay has frozen over. Last time I remember was in January 2018.

Gusting to 45-50 already on the barrier island

Already is.