TJW014

GFS has a southerly bias around this timeframe. This will tick northwest

16th/17th and beyond have more of my interest. Cold air will finally be funneling in with the 16th/17th possible event which could give us some minor accumulations, but really sets us up for something to tap into should something develop in the longer run. With our luck it'll just be wasted cold air

I managed to get a little sunburn (raccoon eyes from sunglasses) on my walk around the Manasquan Reservoir this afternoon. Windows are open to get some fresh air at the house, and I don't even need to use the heater to warm up the truck. Sun is doing it's job

Nice to finally see the sun again this morning. Sunrise was beautiful

I come back from a 12 hour shift and we're still discussing this lol.

41 days here since 12/1 that there has been 50% or more cloud cover here. All these overcast nights have to be helping bump up our average temps since we can't get any radiational cooling

Agree. I'll take a dozen of minor events rather than just one blockbuster storm and that's it for the season. Just enough to look pretty outside but doesn't disrupt travel. Best of both worlds, minus the brine and road salt.

As long as I can see the sun, I don't care how cold it is. It could be 15 degrees out, I don't care. I can't stand these dark and drizzly days. I get migraines and days like today bring the perfect recipe for one.

60 and drizzling here. I'm out in shorts and a t-shirt today

4.35" at home base and that's all she wrote. Roads are getting slick, even treated ones.

Still coming down at a moderate clip here. Visibility about a 1/2 mile. Starting to accumulate on roads now that the sun is down.

Coming up on about 3.5" here in the middle of nowhere in the Pine Barrens. .

I am in Toms River along the bluffs at the water's edge. Radar will fill in once the offshore low component kicks in. That low is going over 60-70 degree water and should help kick some more moisture back towards us. We want that easterly wind to bring in more moisture but not too much that it warms us.

Big fat flakes coming down moderately now. Wind is definitely kicking up a little. Might be trying to mix at the beach.

Just about an inch so far on top of the inch of ice rink from Monday/Tuesday. Pretty wet snow as well

Coming down at a pretty good clip. My street was brined overnight but still sticking to the road.

Also to give all the state workers PTO and overtime opportunities

Very light snow starting to fall now. 30/20

I don't know if they have some sort of elevation that's relatively higher than the surrounding area that helps wring out more snow or what, or they've got a defective ruler.

They're banking on high ratios from wet bulbing (14:1-17:1, possibly up to 20:1) to get what they are calling for. Don't think mixing will be an issue for Coastal Monmouth, so that shouldn't cut back anything for you. LBI and coastal areas south have a better chance at mixing/rain

Per Mt. Holly's latest AFD: Maybe ratios this high for northern areas, but I don't think so down here. Probably would chop off 20-25% off their forecast What to watch out for: Bands of heavier snow may enhance the wet bulb effect, resulting in colder surface temperatures and higher liquid to snow ratios. This will result in locally higher snow amounts. Overall, liquid to snow ratios will be on the order of 14:1 to 17:1, but could get as high as 20:1.

Give the kids a day off to play in the snow. Some haven't been able to in over two years. They could probably do a virtual learning day if they wanted to as well.

Low farther north (35 mi) and stronger. Looks wetter too.

Mt Holly just upgraded Ocean, Monmouth, and Burlington counties to a Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 NJZ020-027-191100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/ Ocean-Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Jackson and Wharton State Forest 248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. Rain will mix with snow during the day Friday near the coasts. * WHERE...Ocean and Southeastern Burlington. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and dangerous.

I'd be ecstatic with 18z HRRR. Still have a ways to go but looks like we're starting to zero in on somewhere between US-40 and Route 33. Going to be a Nowcast event.