RamblinRed

That's a pretty view of Emory, Cheeznado. I'm in Canton so very likely no snow for me. My colleague in Buckhead says it is snowing there.

In fairness on 2014, since I lived through that - the roads went from drivable to ice rinks in about a 30 minute timespan. As soon as they iced everything became impassable because of accidents and the inability of cars to drive up icy hills. Thankfully I worked from home that day but I had teammates who went in to town to work and they got stuck on those roads. They brined the highways but it rained first and washed it all away. Then the temp dropped and the frozen precip started. There is a great time lapse somewhere of traffic in Atlanta that day. It went from every road being green to every road being red in about 45 minutes.

Alot of discussion from NWS Atlanta

FWIW, here is a snowmap from NWS. Some pretty good totals just north of Dallas. Keeping the fingers crossed (all we can do at this point). https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

Discussion from the NWS Atlanta. I found it particularly interesting that it is mentioned that the NAM's overall evolution of the low is suspect and that the GFS has a better handle on the synoptic pattern.

Hopefully the moisture and temperature levels in the SE will be like what is showing in DFW right now (more moisture and lower temperature than what modeling is providing).

Watched the various ATL weather people this morning. Have definitely backed off the snow some here, now more playing up the ice potential. One station even talked about the warm nose. They have been moving up the start time here - as soon as 6 am for some, and also moving up changeover to freezing precip. More 12 pm now. For my area (Cherokee County) they seem to be thinking 2 inches of snow and then maybe .1-.2 ice. Yesterday forcast was 3-5, today 1-3. I suspect by later this afternoon all the metro schools will announce closings or remote learning days for Friday. I also expect almost all businesses to tell their employees to work from home. no one will want a repeat of 2014.

Either the Euro or UK would be pretty good for me. UK would give me 2-3" while the Euro would be 4+. Would be thrilled with either given 6 years of no snow.

Those Freezing rain totals would be disastrous for metro Atlanta. Roads would be impassable and the power outages would likely be high due to all the trees. I just want 3 inches of snow. Haven't had snow in 6 years here.

I'm in Cherokee Co, GA (NW ATL). Just hoping for 3+ here. We got a new sled after the 2018 storm and haven't had a chance to use it yet. Now in a development that has large hills. Son would have a blast if we get legit snow. My daughter is hoping for snow Friday so she doesn't have to drive downtown. May get her wish. That NAM run would create a huge mess from about Buckhead south to Macon with ice.

That run would give the northern ATL suburbs (Cherokee, N. Fulton, Forsyth, N. Gwinett, Hall) their biggest winter event in at least 5-6 years. Some snow with a good layer of freezing crap as well. That would definitely mess up that side of town.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-sea-level-rise-risk-cities/ For this analysis, The Post relied on tide gauge data, which reflects the rise in sea level and sinking of land. For example, Galveston, TX (Galveston Pier 21 gauge) has seen 6.1 inches of Sea Level rise from 1980 to 2009 and an additional 8.4 inches of sea level rise from 2010-2023. That's 14.5 inches in 44 years with the majority of the rise occuring in the last 14 years as the pace has increased. The Fort Pulaski guage outside of Savannah, GA has seen 7.3 inches of sea level rise in the last 14 years. (After 3.7 inches of rise in the previous 30 years). The most interesting part of their analysis is dividing it up by time. It allows you to see how much the rates of rise are increasing. Also interesting to note that the article goes into some detail it is not only sea level rise (that is the biggest part), but also the sinking of land. Finally, it is not consistent across the country, or the world. Some areas are seeing sea level rise at much faster rates than other areas. In the US it is the SE - particularly the Gulf of Mexico and the Southern Atlantic that is seeing the fastest sea level rise. The rates in that area are often 2-3 times faster than in the mid-atlantic or NE.

My wife's best friend has a home on Little Gasparilla Island that she shared with her sister. That home is now part of the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing left are the pylons the house was on. It was the third house from the beach. The two in front of it were destroyed by Helene and then their house was destroyed by Milton. There is still alot of loss from this hurricane and give the NHC credit for doing an incredible job with all its forecasting for this one. On the main thread they were discussing potential landfall at St. Pete as late as 4 pm that afternoon. It is only then that Milton started to take the hard right turn. If it had taken the turn 1-2 hours later we would have had a much worse story.

It also seems like the earlier a model projects landfall it seems to be slightly farther north. Maybe because that means less time for the East turn. CMC is the outlier there, but it has been a southern outlier the entire way. This just looks so close. One wobble to the North could put Tampa right in the cross hairs.

winds are starting to spread out Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h).

I don't see anyone in the main thread saying it is going to be a cat 1. That also doesn't match any of the guidance from the National Hurricane Center. Their 11 am guidance has it at about 125 mph at landfall - a strong cat 3. Also, most of the hi res hurricane models had the storm hitting around Clearwater or north. The farthest south models appear to be maybe around Sarasota. Even if it does weaken, if it stays at or near cat 5 for the next 24 hours the amount of surge that will build up is going to be devastating wherever that comes ashore. That doesn't wind down quickly. Here are 2 important comments from the 11 am discussion Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.

Am I looking at this right, that most of the models are now showing a night time landfall with the tide rising toward high tide? That would seem to be a very bad combination if that is what ultimately happened.

This analysis from 2023 suggests that the Federal Rainfall Analysis is significantly underestimating how often 1 in a 100 yr events are likely to occur. This is due to the data being updated only infrequently and not keeping up with changes due to climate change. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/26/us/extreme-flood-risk-first-street-federal-data-climate/index.html "The report found half the American population lives in a county where a 1-in-100-year flood is at least twice as likely now as past years, coming once every 50 years, on average, rather than 100. First Street found parts of Western North Carolina hit by Helene could get a 1-in-100 year flood every 11 to 25 years. Stronger storms could impact all areas of the country. In much of the Northeast, the Ohio River Basin, Northwestern California, the Texas Gulf Coast and the Mountain West, the rainfall depths for a 1-in-100-year event could happen at least every 5 to 10 years."

This analysis from 2023 suggests that the Federal Rainfall Analysis is significantly underestimating how often 1 in a 100 yr events are likely to occur. This is due to the data being updated only infrequently and not keeping up with changes due to climate change. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/26/us/extreme-flood-risk-first-street-federal-data-climate/index.html "The report found half the American population lives in a county where a 1-in-100-year flood is at least twice as likely now as past years, coming once every 50 years, on average, rather than 100. First Street found parts of Western North Carolina hit by Helene could get a 1-in-100 year flood every 11 to 25 years. Stronger storms could impact all areas of the country. In much of the Northeast, the Ohio River Basin, Northwestern California, the Texas Gulf Coast and the Mountain West, the rainfall depths for a 1-in-100-year event could happen at least every 5 to 10 years."

This is currently the 3rd worst hurricane in terms of deaths to hit the US mainland in the last 50 years. #1 is Katrina - 1,822 #2 Ian - 150 #3 Helene - 115 confirmed so far.

Accordingto the NHC areas near landfall got 15'. “Preliminary post-landfall modeling of storm surge from Hurricane #Helene indicates areas within the Big Bend region of Florida near Keaton Beach, Steinhatchee, and Horseshoe Beach had water levels reach more than 15 ft above ground level,” the Hurricane Center tweeted.

Atlanta Journal Consitution has an interactive map that shows how many customers (and what percentage that is) are without power in every county in GA. https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-news/georgia-statewide-power-outage-map-see-outages-by-county-hurricane-helene-updates/KYWHZWRE3RAWLPDF6QOLWLVHUQ/ The worst among the more populated counties are Richmond County (Augusta) where 93.79% of customers have no power - 95,490 customers. Lowndes County (Valdosta) - 99.27% - 32,023 Customers without power. Chatham County (Savannah) - 69.82% - 114,837 without power. In the metro Atlanta counties roughly 120K customers are without power - so GA really dodged a bullet in terms of Helene basically taking a path through the state that mostly had the center of the storm traversing over mostly lightly populated areas.

This is another good graphic from the NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?radii#contents

I was a young buck then. Just back to Atlanta after going to grad school in the NE. I was in an apartment at that time that was usually about 10 minutes from my office. I managed to get to the office after about 50-60 minutes of driving on roads filled with trees and debris and no working traffic lights. No one was there and the power was off. So I turned around and went back home.

This is reminding me a little of Opal from 1995. I remember waking up Thursday morning in Atlanta and it was really difficult to get anywhere as there was so many trees down (which then took out power, which took out traffic lights). I believe Opal was also a very fast moving storm, though I think it may have actually been just on the west side of Atlanta, so that was likely worse than what Helene seems to be setting up for. Keeping all the mountain folks in my thoughts as you'll look like are going to get hit so hard tomorrow.