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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    I'm watching the southwest Caribbean next weekend. All models are hinting at something forming and moving north.
  2. cptcatz
    Assuming that the PT6 forecast verifies and it makes it to hurricane, we'd be sitting at 6/4/1 with all 6 storms making landfall. While the numbers are low, the impacts are impressive. It's looking like the next MDR storm could break that streak but I think it's too early for that. History buffs: anyone know the longest streak of named storms to make landfall (to start the season or otherwise)?
  3. cptcatz
    Yeah this one is looking interesting to me, especially after that 18z GFS run. I wasn't around for either of those three above storms but I am getting Irma vibes from this.
  4. cptcatz
    I think the better question is why in the world should Colorado State University have any credibility at predicting hurricane seasons? Maybe Colorado should stick to snow pack predictions for skiing while University of Miami should take over hurricane predictions...
  5. cptcatz
    I'm not sure I trust anything anymore. Here's a post from 2.5 weeks ago calling for a good chance of an MDR storm just two weeks down the line (lining up to the past few days). That being said, the wave in the caribbean is looking quite juicy right now so we'll see what happens.
  6. cptcatz
    Might be grasping at straws here but it looks like the wave entering the caribbean has split with a solid area of convection heading WNW north of the islands towards the bahamas. Maybe something to watch?
  7. cptcatz
    The 06z GFS does pop the lid, producing maybe 5 different names storms?
  8. cptcatz
    Lol. "Don't look at long range operational runs!" "But check out this euro operational run 10 days out!"
  9. cptcatz
    While we wait for the season to do something, I figure I'll share my newest video highlighting the top 10 hurricanes to hit Florida:
  10. cptcatz
    Not really. Maybe in the MDR but October is when development pushes west in the Caribbean and GOM. Look at Wilma, Sandy, Michael, Matthew, Delta, Zeta.
  11. cptcatz
    Last two GFS runs finally had something to look at long range. Maybe we'll see more stuff pop up on today's runs. Kinda crazy that it's August 20 in a forecasted hyperactive season and there's basically nothing on the horizon. I definitely can see october being busy based on the last 5 or so years.
  12. cptcatz
    I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted.
  13. cptcatz
    18z gfs with a bullseye on Bermuda. If you look closely you can see the island inside the eye.
  14. cptcatz
    Dude, Bermuda is a tiny island alone in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. No one has any idea right now if it will hit it or pass by safely. Might be best to take a breather and just watch what happens.
  15. cptcatz
    12z GFS nails Bermuda, icon brushes it as a 940 storm. I think impacts to Bermuda could be the story with this one.
  16. cptcatz
    Overnight everything moving east, seems to be a clear OTS path. Could have a major hurricane getting close to Bermuda though.
  17. cptcatz
    Because every model is showing it being a miss. You're seeing what we're seeing, right? Wish casting won't make it turn the other way.
  18. cptcatz
    What's your point? GFS didn't show 98L developing until three days ago (Aug 7, 12z) and it looks like that will likely be a mjor hurricane. GFS long range doesn't know how to forecast cyclogensis and means nothing.
  19. cptcatz
    Icon showing two MDR systems a week from now. Let's see if GFS and CMC follow suit.
  20. cptcatz
    Classic ldub post of canceling the season in early August, never realizing that climatology ramps up in late August.
  21. cptcatz
    AF recon just made a proper center pass. 986 extrap pressure. There you go.
  22. cptcatz
    Yeah, radar with the eye now makes it easy to see it's direction. Definitely northeast. This path looks like it would take it between Ocala and Gainesville.
  23. cptcatz
    Recon taking off in a tropical storm...
  24. cptcatz
    Just got woken up to a tornado warning here in Boca Raton. Nasty looking outer band squall line about to move through.
  25. cptcatz
    GEFS 9 days out
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