cptcatz
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Everything posted by cptcatz
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Amazing agreement between Euro and GFS in the long range that definitely hasn't been seen all year. This is concerning.
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00z GFS-P has it making landfall in Miami, meanders around Broward and Palm Beach a little before heading northwest, emerging into the Gulf right over Tampa, strengthening in the Gulf, and then making another landfall around Panama Beach. Oof that would be something
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Looks like it's lost a lot of its convection over the past few hours
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If that's not at least a tropical depression then I don't know what is
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06z GFS has it riding up through Florida next weekend
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And once again a 18z GFS run decimates south Florida, has a hurricane sitting over it for three straight days. Maybe this one will be it? Will south Florida escape this season?
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Is that normal? I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore.
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Here we go...
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Looks like recon will have one more pass through the eye before landfall. Eagerly awaiting the plane to turn!
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110 mph at the 3pm update. Looks like it will have at most one more advisory before making landfall, one final chance to hit major.
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He rented it for hurricane season, as he calls it "Operation Deep South at Hurricane House". Pretty damn good choice for a rental home as a base to chase hurricanes!
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Hurricane Josh is gonna be sitting on his front porch getting the strongest winds of the storm. Impressive house selection.
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Model trends the past couple days now have been the Caribbean storm going straight into Honduras/Nicaragua, similar to a Mitch track, which made landfall in Honduras 22 years ago tomorrow.
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And one that's moving east through the MDR (that 932 mb storm is moving east through the Caribbean on that run)
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Hour 384 of the GFS-P. Is that four tropical/subtropical storms on November 11?
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All aboard! 12z suite of Euro, GFS, GFS-P, and CMC 240 hours out. Is this the best long range model agreement we've seen all season?
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CMC and GFS are both agreeing on significant development in the Caribbean less than 10 days out now. EPS was also showing it so it'll be interesting to see if the Euro picks up on it this afternoon.
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TD28 advisories incoming at 5pm
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I remember most GFS runs through the summer being "no tropical development through 384 hours yet again" even while all those sloppy tropical storms kept popping up. That being said:
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The GFS, GFS-P, and now the EPS are on board with this. Could be two more storms brewing around November 5-7.
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06z HMON with a landfall around West Palm Beach and 12z HMON landfall in the Keys.
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95L now at 50/60% odds and is looking nice and juicy in the Caribbean this morning. Maybe a depression by tonight?
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Feels like a day of Laura, a day of Sally, a day of Delta, a few hours of Hanna, and maybe an hour of Isaias.
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Although the GFS misforcasted the development of the system while in the Caribbean, it got the track and timing pretty dead on 10 days out. That being said, it's still showing an outbreak in the Caribbean the first week of November. GFS-P is hinting at two storms, with yesterday's 18z run having one Wilma track through Florida and the other one dropping to 935 mb south of Cuba...
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The GFS had not been doing the fantasy storm thing at all this season up until last week. In fact, it was having a really hard time picking up any storms in the long range that actually ended up forming. I wouldn't count out the first week of November yet.
