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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    GFS dropped it. Looks like King Euro reigns supreme.
  2. cptcatz
    10 majors? Bold.
  3. cptcatz
    Test on whether the Euro will continue the trend of doing a terrible job at cyclogenesis: The GFS has been on this system for a while, shows a 939 mb storm south of Okinawa 240 hours out while Euro has squat. Who will win?
  4. cptcatz
    I was also looking for the Sally thread a while back and couldn't find it either, only the banter thread.
  5. cptcatz
    The first GFS fantasyland tropical system of the 2021 Atlantic season!
  6. cptcatz
    Katrina would like a word with you, sir.
  7. cptcatz
    I'd love to know where you're getting your data from being that the models are not showing that... https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384171583023968259
  8. cptcatz
    Interesting graphs being tweeted. This one shows the average ENSO for peak season is heading to a weak Nina: While this one shows a weak Nina producing the highest ACE:
  9. cptcatz
    TSR and CSU should be coming out with forecasts any day now. Anyone know when we can expect them?
  10. cptcatz
    Lots of models now showing potential for something to spin up off the SE coast early next week...
  11. cptcatz
    Still looks like a strong La Nina though. Any news on if they think that will change?
  12. cptcatz
    Andrew was a cat 5 but I can't think of any other A-named cat 5's meaning that's the only season that opened with a cat 5. Has any other season other than 2020 ended with a cat 5?
  13. cptcatz
    With nothing showing on any global models now, it looks like the season may be a wrap. Quite a crazy season. I think the most impressive stat is out of the 13 hurricanes, 10 made landfall at or near maximum intensity.
  14. cptcatz
    Iota: "thanks, I'll take my beer back now"
  15. cptcatz
    Iota: "Hold my beer"
  16. cptcatz
    There's a pretty decent signal for another TC development next weekend. One ensemble member has a major going into Miami.
  17. cptcatz
    It would have to get over quite a ridge to make it up to the CONUS
  18. cptcatz
    January 1, 2021
  19. cptcatz
    Looking back on some earlier posts, it's pretty amazing that the GFS got the dip and stall near the Keys pretty spot on 10 days in advance, even if it was way too bullish on the intensity.
  20. cptcatz
    I'm not sure if it's just the westerly shear since we can't see the center but it sure looks like the convection blob is moving northeast and not north like the NHC indicated. I also second the recon question. It's a short flight from Lakeland and we can use some data. Wonder what they're waiting for.
  21. cptcatz
    You can't declare that until every last legal ACE number is counted. There are still storms to be tallied and the NHC hasn't certified the totals yet. Plus I could see 2020 not conceding until we get the post-season analysis updates. This can be a long drawn out battle...
  22. cptcatz
    98L classified in the eastern Caribbean. Could have three named storms in the next few days in mid-November.
  23. cptcatz
    It doesn't help that basically every model has it fizzling out before ever reaching land again. Feel like it's gonna be another Marco from here on out.
  24. cptcatz
    I just went into my bathroom and noticed water pooling on the floor, coming in from where the wall meets the floor. Ugh. Watching this next band closely on radar. As of now it looks like it may slide to the south of us but hard to tell with the curving movement.
  25. cptcatz
    Just had an intense band move through Boca. Up to 4.62 inches of rain for the day and pressure is below 1008 mb.
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