cptcatz

Wait, I thought you said earlier in this thread that the season was a bust and September was going to be nothing-ville? You also said Grace was gonna fall apart. Anyways, after 99L impacts the Gulf Coast, we will turn our attention to the MDR. GFS finally got on board along with CMC and Euro for a strong developing system. GFS has it approaching the Bahamas at the end of the run.

Not sure I've ever seen NHC talk about potential dangerous hurricane impacts from a wave during a TWO: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Ridiculous amount of convection over Central America. I suppose the invest is in there somewhere?

Euro and CMC almost exactly the same with a nice sized MDR storm with a developing wave trailing right behind. Both models have been bullish on this for a number of runs, GFS still not sure.

Hard to tell but looks like that may be the wave that makes it into the Caribbean which the GFS has been trying to develop next week. After that, Euro, GFS, and CMC are all pointing to a long tracker MDR storm moving off Africa next week.

I saw him at Sunbelt Rentals getting some industrial sized fans.

Long range GFS has continually showed a system forming in the central Caribbean and moving north across Cuba towards Florida. This would coincide with peak climo season as well as the strong CCKW expected to be overhead.

Whatever gets the east side of this storm is gonna get some really nasty winds. 64 knots at the surface is no joke.

Henri has started it's slight turn west of due north

It's trying to wrap convection around the northeast side of the center. If it can wrap around, it can be in good shape. Only problem is it's running out of warm water.

I don't think that's an eye... I think that's the convection eroding and exposing the LLC, which if that's the case is not a good sign for intensification.

Hot damn, 115 knots at the surface. We got a full fledged cat 4.

Recon just recorded 115 kt flight level wind. Does NHC upgrade it to cat 3 at 11pm?

Can't see an eye like that forming in a not-even-hurricane.

Finally about to get the first real eye of the Atlantic season

Oof that HMON run brings worst case scenario surge into NY harbor...

With the rate of inflation and prices of materials, a couple collapsed decks makes for a billion dollar disaster.

Lots of 18z euro ensembles now show a NYC metro strike. Now that would be something

TropicalTidbits

Is that an eye I see right next to the new hot tower popping up?

Not even a fantasy cane going into September on the GFS? Pretty weak first half of the season.

68 knots FL winds, I'm pretty surprised NHC isn't putting out a special statement with at least a hurricane watch. With landfall hours away, seems like it's a good time now to warn the coast of possible hurricane conditions.

Have we had a storm this season where the NHC didn't highlight the uncertainty of the forecast?

Interesting geography note: if Fred goes due north it would hit the piece of land jutting out. But the models all show it making a slight turn to the northwest bringing it into the bend between Destin and Panama City. This track would give it another good hour or more of intensification.

Haiti is very prone to earthquakes and to tropical cyclones. Eventually you'll get them occurring close together. I can't see how one would cause the other to happen.