cptcatz

Seems like modeling at this point is pointless. We know it's gonna head west towards the Honduras coast. Whether it hangs out just off shore or just on shore will make all the difference with the rest of the track, and I don't think there's any way to know for sure until it gets there. It's kinda pointless to say GFS shows nada (after getting shredded by the Honduras mountains) or Euro shows a hurricane in Florida (after barely staying off shore), since those scenarios are entirely dependent on the miniscule track errors of land interaction.

So 2024 already has the earliest cat 5 on record. Anyone know what the latest cat 5 is of now? Edit: nevermind, it was easy to look up. There's only been one cat 5 ever in November on record. 1932 Cuba hurricane was a cat 5 on November 6. So this could break that record if it does reach that intensity.

If that were to verify it would still bring a 980 mb eye over downtown Miami. That would cause quite a mess.

GFS isn't on an island with this next possible one. Today's 12z CMC shows a banafide storm and EPS shows a solid signal.

Recon just got 956 mb. Waiting for that new east side winds. Thinking cat 3 after it makes the pass.

Crazy lack of certainty with this system. Looks like it's between either getting strung out and heading straight northeast through the Greater Antilles and out to sea, or it moves northwest through the Caribbean, into the GoM, and then cuts back across Florida. GFS has been showing the strung out northeast, GEFS seems to have a lot of members going into the GoM, Euro shows just a broad gyre, while many EPS members also show going into the GoM. Looks like Canadian and its ensembles also support the GoM track. Quite a significant difference in tracks with an already battered Florida in the path of one of them.

I agree with NHC in that convection is not organized. Looks to be puffing some convection which then fades away and then puffs another.

Euro now has 94L becoming a hurricane in the caribbean...

I think the problem with using Katrina as an example of "surge being baked in" is that Katrina was a massive category 5 that weakened IMMEDIATELY before landfall. Even though Katrina made landfall as a cat 3, it still made landfall with a central pressure of 920 mb, which is comparable to a cat 5. I mean look at these two satelite images... do you really think these would produce anywhere close to the same surges? I'm no professional meteorologist but I think the biggest factor for surge is the size of the storm. We clearly saw that with Sandy, Ian, Helene, Katrina, as opposed to tiny storms like Charley and Milton.

NHC really doesn't trust the GFS. GFS shows a tropical storm forming in 3-4 days and we can't even get a 20% confidence that a storm will form in 7 days from the NHC...

18z GFS goes berserk with cyclogenesis in only 96 hours and a cat 4 in 174 hours. It sticks with burying it into Belize. This would be disastrous for that area with the rain and mudslides in addition to the hurricane winds. Kinda strange how GFS has a tropical storm in 4 days and no other models really have anything. It also has a weak storm forming from 94L in the caribbean.

Looks like there are two different areas that models and ensembles are picking up on. First is the area of the western caribbean that the GFS and ensembles love to develop. Operational has shown it getting buried into central America but the ensembles show a bigger signal of bringing into the Gulf of mexico. Other models aren't as bullish but most others at least show CAG-like vorticity. The other area which seems to be getting more model support recently is the current 94L in the eastern Atlantic. Looks like it won't develop any time soon but all models seem to show it continuing as a healthy wave across the MDR and then possibly having it develop around the caribbean. Euro seems most bullish but this morning's GEFS shows some interesting scenarios as well. Hopefully we'll get a better picture of these in the next few days. Looks like this late peak season might continue into late October.

Nice summary. You missed the crazy tornado outbreak yesterday. Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie counties had one of their impactful weather days in history with the nonstop tornado warnings for legitimate large and long tracking Tornado Alley style tornadoes. Also, you think Helene will be the costliest on record? Surpassing Katrina?

They already have. Significant damage in Fort Myers: https://x.com/theScantman/status/1844067282361930200

Large tornado observed in that cell https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1844017578357993544

Yeah I mean they clearly missed it based on the lack of wind direction change. I just wonder why.

Did recon just clearly miss the center?

There's still a huge windfield to the southeast of the center which should still be expanding. Nothing is stopping the massive surge that will occur on the coast south of the landfall point.

Eyewall replacement cycle occurring. That inner eyewall still producing 154 kt wind while that secondary peak is already at 127 kt. Will be interesting to see how the storm structure changes.

Love going back to old posts. Kirk and Leslie had some nice attention but got kicked to the curb once Milton came around.

That's an upper level dropsonde mission. Looks like an AF recon plane just took off, should be there in an hour or two.

Ok so maybe the eyewall misses the metro, but if it landfalls at Longboat Key where models show it today and then moves into South Bradenton, that puts the entire Tampa metro within about a 45 mile radius of the center. NHC says hurricane force winds extend out 30 miles right now and they explicitly said they expect the windfield to double in size. That puts all of Tampa metro in hurricane force winds. Not to mention that path takes it right over Orlando metro next. Surge aside, this is going to be a mess in those large populated areas.

One big difference is even if it does landfall around Sarasota and spares TB of the surge, the northern eyewall will still rake the sprawling Tampa metro of 3.2 million people with probably 100+ mph winds. While it may not be catastrophic damage, the widespread power outages and minor structural damage can add up quickly.

Looks like 06z Euro is trending a tad south around Sarasota and 06z GEFS has TB at the far northern end of the ensembles with a bunch betweeen Sarasota and Fort Myers. Wonder if this southern trend will continue.

First pass: 926.7 mb, peak flight wind 126 knots