fluoronium

I'm playing the MCV today based on proximity alone. Seeing all the crapvection early in the morning had me worried but now the sun is out here and I'm more hopeful.

It's disgustingly cold for late May, and I didn't even get consolation thunderstorms during the temperature drop. This sucks. Looks like a lot of record cold highs are about to fall.

I just upload them and press the little + symbol in the corner. like this:

ILX confirms 4 EF-U tornadoes so far for yesterday's event: https://www.weather.gov/ilx/May3_2021_SevereWeather I ended up chasing further south than I originally intended, and was able to observe the weak tornado near Ashland, IL. I'm pretty sure I captured another tornado near Raymond, IL as well.

I'll be out chasing today, probably along i74 or US136. For those chasing west of the IL river, be aware of the river crossings in the area so you don't get trapped or miss out on a storm. Also anything roughly west of the Jacksonville, IL area to close to the Mississippi river is a 100% dead zone for verizon reception.

the ~0.75" of rain here yesterday was great to get the morel mushrooms to pop. We could have used a little more rain with how dry it's been though. It's crazy how dead March and April have been for severe weather here lately. This spring was finally warm for a change, yet thunderstorms have been almost totally absent. I'm hoping May will finally bring some interesting weather here.

HRRR showing pockets of 100+ 0-3km CAPE both tomorrow and Wednesday. I'd love to score some thundersnow out of this.

lol. Might as well go for a 4th year in a row of mid April snow storms. I wonder if I'll ever see fruit from my orchard.

NWS point and click gives me 50's and 60's throughout the whole forecast. The previous few days have been great as well. What a nice change for early March compared to recent years!

What I find bizarre is that people that are such skeptics about these vaccines are never skeptical about the long term effects from the virus itself. Long term lung/heart/nerve damage in covid survivors is well documented in literature. The vaccines have shown to be incredibly safe compared to covid over the same time scale. I realize under a year of data for a new vaccine is less than ideal, but the virus would have run through everybody if we waited a couple years. It's not like the vaccines were created from scratch a year ago though. The methods used in the current authorized vaccines (mRNA, adenovirus vector) have been studied and trialed on humans for several years before this virus was ever infecting humans, including for two related coronaviruses (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV). It's not vaccine or nothing, you are choosing between a vaccine and the virus. You'd be silly to think your chances are better off with the mystery bat virus from China over one of the authorized vaccines. Personally, I'm thankful for every person ahead of me in line that refuses it. It only means I'll get one sooner.

Snow coming down fairly heavy right now. Flake size is tiny compared to the huge flakes I was getting with the light snow in the morning

It's currently snowing and -2F outside. The only other time I can remember getting accumulations below 0F was during the polar blast of jan/feb 2019. Seeing the models creep NW with the extent of >6" amounts has me hopeful What a crazy storm this is. Talk about spreading the wealth!!

With all the snow just north of me, it looks like I'll be going into this cold snap with close to no snow on the ground. I wonder how hard it would be to find the lowest recorded temperature with <1" of snow on the ground at a given observing site.

sitting just south of the cutoff yet again

The funny thing is that modern chaos theory arose as a direct result of trying to predict the weather. The person who is widely considered to be the founder of chaos theory was a meteorologist, and his groundbreaking paper was published in a meteorology journal. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine isn't traditional by any means. It's a recombinant adenovirus that works quite similarly to the mRNA vaccines but with extra steps.

Why is it a mystery that the same measures to limit spread of coronavirus wouldn't work for a virus that spreads via the same ways, but is MUCH less contagious, has a shorter period of pre-symptomatic spread, and is partially stopped due to herd immunity via flu shots and previous exposure? If that is too much to comprehend...you're probably the same type of person to share a brainless facebook copypasta. For the record it's not just flu that's down either, RSV and enteroviruses are way down as well.

Even though it's unlikely I'll be receiving big accumulations out of this, I certainly like the convective look of the snow showers being modeled. Maybe if I'm lucky I could experience my first snow squall warning

Every day since the 1st has brought vastly different scenery. Air temps hovered around freezing today, with dense fog setting in by early afternoon. Some melting of ice on the trees, but lots of it refreezing into longer icicles. Hoarfrost blends in with the ice and snow. Branches are still falling!!

This has been such an amazing week of winter weather here. First the ice and snow on the 1st, then the surprise snow storm early yesterday morning and then the hoarfrost today. What a way to end a loooong stretch of boring winter weather in central IL! I hope those in central IN cash in sometime soon as well. It has yet to get above freezing here, and trees and branches are still falling!!

WHAT THE $%÷@$!?!? I was not expecting to wake up to everything buried. I got roughly 5" here which is more than what I've gotten in the past two blizzard warnings and last winter storm warning combined . Finally broke the curse of Halloween 2019. The heavy snow on top of the already weighted down trees from the previous ice/concrete snow has made the scenes outside UNREAL. I've never seen anything like it.

I got roughly a third of an inch of ice with the freezing rain, but it was the backside snow that pushed many of the trees here to their breaking point. I only got ~1.5" of snow but it was super wet and stuck so well to the trees that the forest floor is nearly barren of snow. Walking outside last night during the snow sounded like a thunderstorm from all the falling trees and limbs. Raw totals from the storm aren't very impressive but this will certainly be a storm to remember.

Lights are beginning to flicker here. I don't think I'm going to have power much longer. Birch trees in the area are bent over to the ground from the weight of the ice.

Briefly started as sleet here before switching to rain. Roads are a nightmare and trees have a solid glaze of ice already. High precip rates are preventing all of the liquid from freezing on contact though. A huge area is going to get ice today which is going to make it difficult to quickly restore power to places that lose it. I wonder how far north that freezing line is going to make it.

Yeah I've noticed this too. It can't just be selective memory either since it's been over a decade since the last big ice storm in central IL. Any decent ice threat seems to get killed off by warm air creeping in further than expected. This time the model support is pretty strong though, and even the NAM is on board now. So if I get 33 and rain most of the day tomorrow, I'm going to be irritated