JustinRP37

So odd that so many are saying winter is over for the sub forum when my second largest snowfall of the season could be in the way and it wouldn’t take much to make it the biggest snowfall of the season. Last I checked Putnam and Dutchess counties should be included in this sub forum.

This morning felt amazing. Nice to breathe in that cold air and feel it in your lungs. Walked to the train and saw a beautiful snowmaking cloud over Thunder Ridge. I just hope they get the double chairlift fixed soon! Ahh if only this could last 3 straight months. I don’t get why people live in cold climates and complain when it gets cold. I don’t go to Florida and complain at the heat and humidity when I’m there in summertime.

And finally anyone saying winter is done on January 20th should be auto banned in my opinion. That is like saying summer is over July 20th because we have a week of 70s coming up. I get it, and anyone saying winter is done, yeah you could be correct. But if it does indeed snow then you should never offer an opinion again on a weather forum because nobody on January 20th knows with 95% confidence or more that we won't see at least one snowy solution by April. I also noticed many people saying we would be buried in snow during this "favorable pattern" so again we don't know much. With all the fancy tools and knowledge we have, look at the accuracy of 7 day forecasts. Hell, how people like JB still have a job constantly calling for colder than average temperatures or extreme weather constantly, it is mind boggling. Avoid the X folks (both the website and the drug).

I think many on here have never been to upstate NY or Vermont even when it is torchy in NYC metro. While yes things are bleak around much of the metro area, you can literally hop on Amtrak and ride up to Burlington or Rutland and get to Jay Peak, Killington, Stowe, etc and see that they are doing quite well and even with the upcoming warming pattern they have tons of potential there. While it sucks that this week we were be above freezing from Wednesday to Saturday night, the lower Hudson Valley will see snow making resume Sunday night if the humidity cooperates and possibly 24 hour snowmaking on Monday the 29th. Even the upcoming warm period looks much better than it did this time last year when I was riding on slush from Belleayre to Catamount for a period in midwinter. I do think NYC's snow season though may be coming to an abrupt end but I don't think the rest of the area will be similar.

Poconos are also a hot spot now. Same as central MA. Any time it is above 40 for a period of time the adult ticks will become active again. Never used to happen in the winter but now we pretty much see them throughout. Look at next week. Plenty of 40+ degree days with warm overnight lows. The deer are basically the singles bar for ticks. They mate on the deer. Mice harbor the diseases and act as the reservoir hosts. If you can decrease the deer you decrease the tick abundance. Best pesticide for clothes is permethrin. That stuff is excellent and I highly recommend that with tick checks still. Remember it is the tick you don’t find that will give you disease. As much as I don’t like using pesticides on my lawn, I do use it in the spring to help keep the ticks out of the yard so my son can play.

Last year was a moderate to low season for blacklegged ticks (aka deer ticks) across the region. Our lab does surveillance across the lower Hudson Valley. In the past few decades too we have also seen far fewer ticks carrying the Lyme spirochete bacteria as well. However to the north that number is increasing. That said across the island the Lone Star tick has been increasing in numbers. That tick is also a more aggressive feeder. Then we also have the Asian longhorned tick, which is an invasive tick, spreading throughout the region. So it is a mixed bag.

Thanks for all this. I was laughed at for suggesting we put way too much emphasis on the MJO when there are plenty of other factors to look into. The MJO plays a role, but like everything in environmental science and meteorology there are millions of things going on all at once so we can never pick just one variable and say this is the be all end all. Just like the people that say snowless warm winters help tick populations, we now know that is not true.

Alright, I gotta ask, how is a person from Smithtown, NY a Carolina Hurricanes fan? Team ripped my heart out in 1997 when the Whalers announced they were moving to Carolina. Sorry for the off-topic but I keep seeing your icon and I gotta know. We take our Islanders, Rangers, and Devils seriously up here haha.

Naw you are good. I honestly do hope I eat crow. I'm still bitter over ice block skiing yesterday at Catamount.

Yeah I might have to take the young one out there soon, but then question, how do you get them back on the airplane to come home when vacation is over?

Haha well this is one case where I do hope I eat crow. I wish it was just the NYC Metro getting a ratter right now. I yearn for winters that last more than 14-21 days lately.

For sure. I was just going by their “advertisement” I mean snow report, saying they made snow on open trails (no they didn’t). Poor kid is now terrified of skiing, but I’ll rebuild his confidence quickly.

I hope I am wrong, but one of the best ski mets I follow was the reason for my change of heart. He things the hostile period will end up being longer than currently modeled. Fingers crossed this isn’t the case, but so far, in my opinion, this ski season started out wonderfully, but since mid-December has been worse than last season for the areas south of I90.

I posted this in the NYC Metro, but since I am on the border with New England, I figured this also applies. Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year. I think the northern mountains will fair okay in February, but I think from I90 south it will be a tough go. That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”.

Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year. That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”.

Yeah you gotta get up north. Anywhere that received the 2-4 inches of rain the past few weeks is straight up bullet proof ice and firm granular.

I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope. We cannot keep getting these crazy warmups with pouring rain, please just make it stop!! I'd take just cold and no snow over what we have had so far this winter.

I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope.

That’s because spring last year was January to March

I used to think when I was in high school and college that I wanted to end up in Florida because I do love the beach and boating. But I also love skiing. The only season I cannot stand is spring. I love summer and winter, so moving to a place without winter would be tough for me. The older I get the more I actually love the cold, it is just invigorating to take a deep breath of cold air. The only thing that stinks is the cost to heat a house!

It's almost like hysteria drive clicks which drives $$$. Meanwhile accurate forecasting drives revenue in aviation. Point being, I trust your numbers over anything I read online for winds because when they get your forecast wrong people can potentially die.

Alright I have a tough question to ask the crew. Do I buy a new snow blower this season or wait until end of the year clearance? Our tiny but still new snowblower was not up to the job today clearing the 7 inches away. It did great on our sidewalks just not the driveway. I don't want to jinx us by buying another new one this year, likewise if it is looking meh for the next weeks should I hold off? I only ask because I know in retail they will be in full summer mode come February likewise the next season's snowblowers will show up in July haha.

We got just under 7 inches here in Patterson. I just measure after sleeping in since the whole family slept in. Beautiful out.

It is absolutely ripping snow in Patterson, NY. My son was beyond excited to see snow. Pretty insane to think the last warned event he lived through he was 2. Now he is 5.

These two posts are juxtaposed against each other haha. I’m worried about this winter.