JustinRP37

Dare I ask who Tony is?

Currently in our data going back to the late 70s (before I was even born) 2012 was the lowest tick season on record for us. Last year was among the bottom 5 as well. We are VERY interested on how this season will be. Early indicators are pointing to a low season.

Took my mini me up to Vermont this last weekend. We went out on Lake Bomoseen. Lake was totally frozen over, but not as thick as normal and definitely below average snow cover. Not as many ice fishing huts as normal. My son enjoyed experiencing winter nonetheless.

It is about being accurate. The people who have been saying don't trust the cold on the models are not saying that because they are biased. They are using skill and knowledge of the setup and the worldwide patterns. This knowledge is often better than a computer program. Remember models are built by humans, and it is humans that have the skills necessary for meteorology. Anyone can look at a model and say look it says cold. One of the big issues is people see snow on a model and think that will be the outcome, meanwhile there are often big keys that the models are not picking up on. Further, your statement of "this year has been exceptionally unlucky with snow but that doesn't mean anything" is not scientific at all. Do not let your emotions get in the way. Look at the pattern. Look at temperature departures from normal throughout the entire northern hemisphere. It is not just us that is having a snowless winter. Much or Europe and Russia are having a complete ratter of a year. After next week you are in March. This is the time of year where people ignore that below average in March does NOT mean always mean freezing. Average daily high for Central Park for today, February 20th, is 42.6F, by March 15th that daily high average is 49.2F and the daily mean is 42.0F. Even a -5 departure does not get the job done. It is one reason why NYC's snow season ends so quickly, especially compared to further upstate. Statistically speaking winter here is done (around the metro area) by March 15th. Can it still snow? Yes, but it will not last long. Spring Training games begin on Saturday. It is time to acknowledge this season blew and WILL NOT reach average for snowfall. At this point I am just hoping we can pull off one dusting before the season is truly done.

The acorn thing is interesting. We have not confirmed that in our own studies, but does not mean that the correlation is not there in other locations. What does seem to work is high precipitation during winter (in particular long duration snow cover) in helping increase the nymphal population in the following year. Ticks are a mid- to long-range thread haha! Not weather wise, but they are really connected to the weather.

I can definitely share some stuff, especially individually (via direct message). There are a lot of different ideas in the tick world, but it is looking more and more like warm winters like this decrease blacklegged tick numbers. Our lab has done work on repellents, seasonality, infection, etc. We also do extensive work with mosquitos too.

I posted about that in the other thread. It is very difficult to have both super high heat and the super high dew points we are having. It is one reason why coastal Florida has never broken 100 degrees. This held down our high temperatures, but elevated our low temperatures. Our highest positive departures over the past two years were actually centered between July and September. In 2018 July was +1.2C, August was +2.4C, and September was +2.3C. Only month with a higher department was May 2018 at +2.8C. In 2019, July was +2.2C and October was +2.1C. March 2019 was -0.4C and and November was -1.8C for departures.

Just put together data for my tick report using HPN data for our upcoming tick season. From January 2018 through January 2020, we have had 16 above normal months (>+0.3 C departure), 4 normal months (-0.3C < Normal < +0.3C), and 5 below average months (<-0.3C). Since January 2018 our average monthly mean temperatures have been running 1.0C above average or 1.7F above average. Not a whole lot of 'cold' to speak of. Not the greatest departure that we have seen over the last decade, but we are routinely above average. Doesn't mean it can't snow. Snow does not mean cold in the 2000s, most of the time time it means just cold enough.

People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited. Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.

In early March I am still down but by about mid March I’m ready for it to be over. I hate spring as it is.

I swear some people think NYC is geographically located where Albany is when they show maps...

Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks.

Thanks just wish there was some notification or something so I don’t think I’m going crazy. It’s tough with a 16 month old even making sure I leave the house with pants some mornings.

Just wondering, was there something I said in my comment that spurred it to being delete in a banter thread? I thought it was optimistic.

Hyperbole much? Outside of JB nobody was seriously saying NYC was becoming the new Buffalo. We had a few big years of snow, and the majority of the big winters had sustained positive temperature departures. Winter is our fastest warming season even with the increase in snowfall we saw for much of the past two decades, something I have studied first hand for my tick work. And climate models have been mostly accurate for our region in regards to increasing humidity, precipitation, and temperature. With that models also point out an increase in snow until the warming overwhelms.

I honestly think people use analogs way too much. Back in October NOAA released this: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north They honestly nailed this winter back in the beginning of October for us, but notice they bombed for Alaska. But that didn't stop JB and Twitter WX from saying EPIC COLD AND SNOW!! Perhaps we should all do what NOAA does: "NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are favored to change. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected."

They were actually pretty spot on this year though. Not one was sustained on showing cold and snowy, but we all had our reasons. I'm doing a lot of head scratching and I think I allowed myself to think that maybe they weren't seeing something right.

Social media I feel has been awful for meteorology as a whole. You get these very influential Twitter wx guys that hammer, hammer, and hammer what people want to see and hear. Let's face it even the people that absolutely HATE snow will click on a headline that says "Epic cold and snow this winter" versus a headline that says "Warmer and snowless winter coming up". These Twitter stars know this and have monetized it quite well. Some people are catching on, but there is always that one model run 295 hours out that shows an amazing pattern. I am happy, at least for the time being, that we have dried out and are stringing together sunny days. I feel like that is something that hasn't happened for a long time. But alas the thing many people forget is that years like this do hurt families that rely on the snow, from landscapers who plow, to people the work and support the skiing industry, to road crews that bank on some extra OT money.

Yeah I’ve made that argument before about warm and snowy. It seems that as long as there is snow the ACATT crew is happy which puzzles me. Snow cover is an important metric many glance over. Especially ecologically speaking.

Honestly, it doesn't surprise me but I don't condone death threats. People just need to tune out many of the long-range meteorologists that claim every winter will be cold and snowy. It sold for many years and since 2000 was almost always more right than wrong (at least for the snowy part). But I'm tired of people giving JB credibility. Go look at his commentary. It is ALWAYS about why it will be cold. It is his political statement, which is not backed up my science. Even the snowy places this year are now 'cold' it's just their climatology allows for snow this time of year even when warmer than average. An excellent scientist, whether they are a researcher, meteorologist, or even a medical doctor, does not allow 'beliefs' to enter into their thoughts. They look at data and present the data. Now we can debate how many people actually do that, but that is for a different thread. This season is frustrating, but there have been more than a few meteorologists that have called for a lackluster winter, so I think we should go out and appreciate that.

Using the same logic, they finished the season well below average for runs and hits for the league even with a few spurts. Same thing for this winter, will likely end up below average based on statistics. another negative is baseball is 162 games long whereas our snow season is less than 90 days.

I normally don’t give our weenie emojis, but if I could give out three, this statement would get multiple weenies.

This thread really blew up for a so so threat still days away and people be digging in like it is Thursday and we are right on the line...

Can not wait to escape to Florida this weekend. I absolutely detest cold rain. I love winter but these are the days that bring me deep down.

I honestly hate this type of weather more than anything. Especially when we are getting into the prime snow weeks. Next 6 weeks are our best for getting a sustained snow pack if we will get one this year. I am hoping that next summer is much more drought like if I am still around the area.