JustinRP37

If every storm is this stubborn this season I am either moving to Florida or northern Canada. One extreme or the other. I am hoping for 2-4 but given how many schools decided to open, I'm kind of hoping this doesn't ramp up until much later, as that would be a nightmare.

I don't think people are freaking out, just pointing out observations. And sorry, but the models have been pretty atrocious with this storm. Let's respect our Met friends here and listen to their reasoning. After all they have been studying this stuff both formally, and probably informally, for a long time.

Because if we analyze every 2-5 inch snowstorm for 46+ pages, this is going to be an exhausting winter. This was always a tricky storm, but never really had an 'epic' side to it. When the primary low heads to the west of Buffalo, we usually have very difficult time getting these to pan out. There are legit severe thunderstorm warnings in western PA. When that happens, it usually causes me to really question what we will get. So far it seems the models are having a difficult time too.

Yeah they posted one much earlier today, hence why the one you posted said 'remains in effect'. It may have been masked by a coastal flood advisory, etc as there are numerous advisories up now.

I'm confused, it looks fairly torchy in the LR after this week. I hope it is wrong, but that big AO spike does match with the timing. Let's hope it gets muted as my nephew would love to ice skate again on a pond at Christmas time when he comes up from the south.

I would not want to be a pro-met for this. The NWS has a great discussion about the uncertainty. They are definitely hesitant on that deformation band and where it sets up. Usually, these bands tend to be over-modeled in my experience. I am cautious, but I am thinking and have always been thinking this is a more north storm that a metro NYC storm. You can also tell meteorologists must be sleep deprived and over this storm (see bolded word from the forecast discussion). Should be Monday?? The other challenging factor is the transition back to snow across the area on Wednesday. Using a consensus approach, this changeover occurs across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ during the late morning hours, then works east in the afternoon and evening hours. A changeover to all snow is expected across much of the area by midnight. Timing of this transition in conjunction with the deformation zone will be key to the amount of snowfall that falls across the region. There will likely be significant differences in snowfall amounts over short distances. Forecast amount changes are highly likely as this event unfolds.

Went through it all in the journey from Northern CT to Southern Westchester. Roads really aren’t in bad shape if you take it slowly. Snow was heaviest northern Westchester through mid-Westchester. Sleet and freezing rain here in Southern Westchester. Glad to be home now.

Part of me wants to stay in northern CT at my childhood home and enjoy the snowfall, but the adult side of me says I don’t think too much will be closed in NYC Monday. Should be decent here.

Funny how some people write off people with credentials these days just because they don’t tell them what they want to hear. I’m hearing many Mets optimistic yet admitting they may still have to go way down or up on totals as we continue to see how this progresses.

Yes snow maps are garbage this far out, but I disagree that easterly winds this time of year keeps the low and mid levels cold. Most of models don’t even have precip until later Sunday and most have the metro area above freezing by 10AM. I’m hoping this changes but there is much working against this system for us. Unless the secondary can get going earlier we usually do poorly with this type of setup. No use in trying to pinpoint solutions right now. Although I am thinking of how horrible traffic will be Sunday night with rain or with snow.

That's what I meant. I was pointing out that pretty much the opposite was happening from what he pointed out.

The mid-levels are torched but the euro is now on the cooler board? I am confused.

He needs more clicks. The holidays are coming up. All about the ads! Seriously why people listen to that clown still is beyond me. Oh wait, he routinely calls for frigid cold to fit his narrative.

Try being a scientist. People just do not want to learn half the time. It is very strange. This stuff affects your everyday life, your health, your family’s health, etc. Even here it can be difficult to talk statistics. Some believe we are Caribou! It is interesting to see the science behind our winters and see how it affects the local ecology. Even my study organism, the blacklegged tick is driven largely by local weather.

Thanks. I was going to say even for a boring week this is dead

You know it is a boring time when there are no posts for ten hours in late November. Should see the sun some today so that is exciting!

When you make claims like this back it up with evidence. It will mean a lot more with some sort of scientific reasoning. Meteorology is a science not a belief system.

It’s funny because where my in-laws live in the Midwest, the town actually had no money to salt last year unless it was a ‘bigger’ storm. Ever since that November storm I jokingly told him we even treat for icing in thunderstorms when it is 80 outside. Not too far from the truth these days. There was one storm last year that came in as rain and 34 but since the storm cut we spiked in temperature, yet the town was spread salt throughout.

I was happy to see no salting going on in the campus I work on in the Bronx. But like you said the trees are really stressed. You almost always see the trees next to highways drop leaves earlier in the fall because of all the stress. This doesn’t help. Not to mention ponds and streams next to roadways taking all that salt. It is ridiculous.

No doubt. But big difference to being prepared and actually dumping tons of salt based on all forecasts.

People do need to realize the ecological consequences of the overuse of road salt. It is becoming a nightmare for amphibians and plants near roadways or streams affected by runoff. I cannot believe the amount of salt dumped on the roads here today, then again nothing surprises me these days. Road salt is not a benign substance for many organisms.

To be even more fair, not one flurry here in the Bronx on Fordham Road. Just a gross day with pointless cold.

This seems much more realistic given what the long range has been showing and the observed patterns. I like when people do not hype just for clicks. Looks like a 'short' main event time centered roughly on the three-four weeks of mid/late January to early February. I hope they are a bit off with the snowfall, but I myself am thinking slightly below average to just average for snowfall. Takeaway summary from the article: "Our current expectation is for temperatures to average near or slightly above average in NYC, with near or slightly above average snowfall.The worst of the Winter will likely be observed from mid to late January into early February."

It is easier to make long term temperature predictions than it is snowfall. You can have a much above normal temperature winter and then get one massive blizzard to be above average for a year.

Snow is dangerous whenever it happens. Yes leaves make power grids fail, but accidents always spike when it snows regardless of if it is in October or December. Second, there will still be plenty of leaves on trees in the NYC metro even the first few weeks of November. I still have plenty of oaks and even a few maples around campus that are still green. I love snow much more than spring or fall, but let’s not pretend there isn’t always risk, hence why schools and businesses close.