JustinRP37

Rates really slowed down here in southern Westchester. Heavier bands are still possible. The only 100% definite so far with this storm is that JB's call of 'feet' of snow for the I-95 corridor will not pan out, unless he backtracks and then says that he meant the I-95 corridor in Maine. Other than that I think the NWS forecast is still in play, but if we do not see things start to fill in by 9-10PM then we are toast.

Coming down moderately in Tuckahoe, NY. 

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Most schools in Westchester county either closed or are having early dismissals.

The majority were open with early dismissals right around the time models have the storm moving in. I was shocked how few districts were closed this morning. Glad many more are dismissing early, I just hope they get out before too long. I know Tuckahoe and Eastchester are still in session and planning on a full day.

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I'm expecting on the lower end but who knows

If every storm is this stubborn this season I am either moving to Florida or northern Canada. One extreme or the other. I am hoping for 2-4 but given how many schools decided to open, I'm kind of hoping this doesn't ramp up until much later, as that would be a nightmare. 

19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why are people already freaking out ? This happens with every storm. Its hilarious. 

I don't think people are freaking out, just pointing out observations. And sorry, but the models have been pretty atrocious with this storm. Let's respect our Met friends here and listen to their reasoning. After all they have been studying this stuff both formally, and probably informally, for a long time.

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Idk why people are quitting on this storm. 2-5 is still very good. 

Because if we analyze every 2-5 inch snowstorm for 46+ pages, this is going to be an exhausting winter. This was always a tricky storm, but never really had an 'epic' side to it. When the primary low heads to the west of Buffalo, we usually have very difficult time getting these to pan out. There are legit severe thunderstorm warnings in western PA. When that happens, it usually causes me to really question what we will get. So far it seems the models are having a difficult time too. 

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Didnt see anything for city or LI before.

Yeah they posted one much earlier today, hence why the one you posted said 'remains in effect'. It may have been masked by a coastal flood advisory, etc as there are numerous advisories up now. 

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With a fairly wintry next 14 days. And one or two more threats next 10 days.. will be a nice holiday vibe after countless awful December’s 

I'm confused, it looks fairly torchy in the LR after this week. I hope it is wrong, but that big AO spike does match with the timing. Let's hope it gets muted as my nephew would love to ice skate again on a pond at Christmas time when he comes up from the south. 

I would not want to be a pro-met for this. The NWS has a great discussion about the uncertainty. They are definitely hesitant on that deformation band and where it sets up. Usually, these bands tend to be over-modeled in my experience. I am cautious, but I am thinking and have always been thinking this is a more north storm that a metro NYC storm. You can also tell meteorologists must be sleep deprived and over this storm (see bolded word from the forecast discussion). Should be Monday??

The other challenging factor is the transition back to snow
across the area on Wednesday. Using a consensus approach, this
changeover occurs across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE
NJ during the late morning hours, then works east in the
afternoon and evening hours. A changeover to all snow is
expected across much of the area by midnight. Timing of this
transition in conjunction with the deformation zone will be key
to the amount of snowfall that falls across the region. There
will likely be significant differences in snowfall amounts over
short distances. Forecast amount changes are highly likely as
this event unfolds.

Went through it all in the journey from Northern CT to Southern Westchester. Roads really aren’t in bad shape if you take it slowly. Snow was heaviest northern Westchester through mid-Westchester. Sleet and freezing rain here in Southern Westchester. Glad to be home now. 

Part of me wants to stay in northern CT at my childhood home and enjoy the snowfall, but the adult side of me says I don’t think too much will be closed in NYC Monday. Should be decent here. 

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight...

Funny how some people write off people with credentials these days just because they don’t tell them what they want to hear. I’m hearing many Mets optimistic yet admitting they may still have to go way down or up on totals as we continue to see how this progresses. 

2 hours ago, binbisso said:

Yes snow maps are useless 4 to 5 days out. But to say that the euro is to warm is inaccurate. We Will be in the mid to Upper twenties Sunday morning according to guidance with precipitation moving in. With the primary well to our West there will be a weak easterly flow and it will take time to warm the mid and lower levels. So I would say there's a better than 50-50 chance that a good portion of the region see snow Sunday morning before a transition to rain. Then it would all depend on where  the secondary forms and if it closes off at H 5 we won't know that until Friday or Saturday but that's a crapshoot. should see our first minor accumulations for a good part of the area with this system in my opinion

Yes snow maps are garbage this far out, but I disagree that easterly winds this time of year keeps the low and mid levels cold. Most of models don’t even have precip until later Sunday and most have the metro area above freezing by 10AM. I’m hoping this changes but there is much working against this system for us. Unless the secondary can get going earlier we usually do poorly with this type of setup. No use in trying to pinpoint solutions right now. Although I am thinking of how horrible traffic will be Sunday night with rain or with snow. 

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

That's what I meant. I was pointing out that pretty much the opposite was happening from what he pointed out. 

10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Definitely got ukmet and now euro on the cooler board. We need the GFS to come back to the snowier solution than we may have something!

The mid-levels are torched but the euro is now on the cooler board? I am confused.

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I wonder what that is based on?

He needs more clicks. The holidays are coming up. All about the ads! Seriously why people listen to that clown still is beyond me. Oh wait, he routinely calls for frigid cold to fit his narrative.

1 hour ago, doncat said:

I'm always  surprised  how little the general public knows about weather and weather forecasting...now of course I don't expect them to be crazy about it like we are, but like you said, Im always hearing from friends and family about some forecast that they said they heard that I know isn't correct...Weather affects people's  every day  decisions about what to wear, when to leave, how to travel etc., but people still just seem so duh about it.

Try being a scientist. People just do not want to learn half the time. It is very strange. This stuff affects your everyday life, your health, your family’s health, etc. Even here it can be difficult to talk statistics. Some believe we are Caribou! It is interesting to see the science behind our winters and see how it affects the local ecology. Even my study organism, the blacklegged tick is driven largely by local weather. 

23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The forum was down

Thanks. I was going to say even for a boring week this is dead

You know it is a boring time when there are no posts for ten hours in late November. Should see the sun some today so that is exciting!

2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I disagree a dry autumn means a cold and snowy winter. 

When you make claims like this back it up with evidence. It will mean a lot more with some sort of scientific reasoning. Meteorology is a science not a belief system. 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A complete waste of resources. I still can't get over how everyone screwed up last November even when it was very clear that we'd get hit by a moderate snowstorm hours in advance.

And ever since then everything has been overkill. 

It’s funny because where my in-laws live in the Midwest, the town actually had no money to salt last year unless it was a ‘bigger’ storm. Ever since that November storm I jokingly told him we even treat for icing in thunderstorms when it is 80 outside. Not too far from the truth these days. There was one storm last year that came in as rain and 34 but since the storm cut we spiked in temperature, yet the town was spread salt throughout. 

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s exactly it. As a horticulturalist My thoughts go right to the trees. There are some incredible trees on the uws. They are already under pressure on a million different fronts. I can’t imagine this neighborhood (Morning Side Heights) without it’s trees. The ridiculous over use of salt is basically a death sentence if it’s not brought under control. 
And it’s also bad for public health. I could taste salt in my mouth walking up broadway as busses and trucks throw the stuff in the air.

As an aside I’m also in charge of snow removal for the campus I work on. Guess how much salt I put down today? 0

I was happy to see no salting going on in the campus I work on in the Bronx. But like you said the trees are really stressed. You almost always see the trees next to highways drop leaves earlier in the fall because of all the stress. This doesn’t help. Not to mention ponds and streams next to roadways taking all that salt. It is ridiculous. 

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

last november's snowstorm made a big contribution 

No doubt. But big difference to being prepared and actually dumping tons of salt based on all forecasts.

People do need to realize the ecological consequences of the overuse of road salt. It is becoming a nightmare for amphibians and plants near roadways or streams affected by runoff. I cannot believe the amount of salt dumped on the roads here today, then again nothing surprises me these days. Road salt is not a benign substance for many organisms.

28 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wouldn’t really say HRRR fail, it pointed out that the precip would backfill in the first place, most other models had no snow.

To be even more fair, not one flurry here in the Bronx on Fordham Road. Just a gross day with pointless cold.