JustinRP37

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen.

A storm like the Boxing Day Blizzard would do! Remember going to bed hearing 6-12 and woke up with feet!

Sometimes I have to laugh. It is a bold call to say NYC finished with less than 20 inches this season, but not a bold call to say that NYC will wind up with 25-30 inches? Right now both solutions are BOTH bold. Why? Because we could easily get 0-5 for the rest of the season or one big bomb that drops 22 inches in February. Both are equally likely at this point in time. So stop arguing over bold calls or not. Hell JB makes bold calls every year and people hang on his every word because he often calls for cold. I have noticed those with cold biases on social media tend to have more followers.... Hmm....

Read about what I posted on the MJO. Even phase 8 does not signal cold weather is imminent! It is only significantly correlated with increased storminess. That could still mean rain, or snow to rain. If timed correctly though could provide a storm, but again MJO really does not look like a huge player in the upcoming pattern.

I've been saying over and over that were are mere mortals on the planet. People try to predict the weather with certainty 7+ days out, when even accuracy within 24 hours can be terrible. All this week I heard about the MJO over and over and over again on social media and here. So, being a research scientist, I decided to take a closer look. The MJO does not guarantee cold or even snow. There is a significant relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and southeastern New England snowfall and Nor'Easter frequency found in multiple studies. Two studies , however, found NO relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and temperature in southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic (Barrett et al. 2015 and Klotzbach 2016). Likely, the increase in snow cover during MJO entering 7-8-1 is driven by increased storminess and NOT a decrease in melt rate. So just because the MJO may be in a good spot, does not necessarily mean we will see the increase in storminess. While the MJO can be used, the other teleconnections and other factors must be monitored. I still want to read more and study these effects, but I know some on this board probably know all this.

The personal attacks are ridiculous. It is OKAY to be critical, but point out where the flaws are. I've been highly critical of JB, yet people still use him. Why do I not use him? Because his skill for forecasting overall temperatures is less than 30% (I ran the numbers about 5 years ago).

Quit the bickering. Focus on the teleconnections and models not on each other. Right now there is support on both sides of the argument but based on what I am seeing the colder argument is winning at least for a week or two. Anyone claiming victory for most of February at this point is just being ridiculous.

Are you in Armonk or NYC metro? I have seen you post both...

The most frustrating thing about winters like this is the models always show something just over there towards the end of their run. Then we discuss it for awhile only for that to then appear as snow to rain and then closer to the event mainly white rain and then plain rain. It is frustrating. Hoping to head to Vermont in February to see some ‘winter’.

Yeah but based on today’s trends it’s going to be hard to even get that 2-4 in the metro area. I’d personally go for an inch or less in Manhattan and similar for southern Westchester. Maybe 2 inches in parts. Northern Westchester maybe 1-3. Just not looking good.

So far this season you have been far too optimistic with your snowfall forecasts. It is usually about the same time you give your prediction that the models start showing a warmer solution and bringing in more rain. Not to gang up on you, but what did you do to anger Old Man Winter this year? Next storm let's hold off until your 2-3 day range to see maybe you have a string of bad luck this season.

I hear you. I just hate snowless winters. All the gloomy with none of the fun and a waste of being too cold to enjoy the outdoors. With snow the world looks magical and you can go outside and enjoy it. You don't have to worry about sinking in feet of mud and muck. My least favorite season is spring until late May (sometimes June). I am a winter and summer guy, and most falls aren't bad either.

He posted statistics for this date, he didn't make the numbers up by dividing the days in the season. We are statistically behind where we should be for this time of year. However, most of our big storms are, statistically, after the 20th of January. Very often those seasons that end up below average at the end of the January, wind up below average at the conclusion of the season as well. If we don't get the ball rolling soon, then the statistics are no in our favor. This is where people freak out. I didn't say winter would be over, just that statistically it would not look as rosy. With stats though, there is a first for everything. I remain optimistic, however there are some clouds forming on that optimism.

You can never discuss weather in definitives, it just does not always work out. We will see what happens, but hopefully we do get that push into nice winter weather. It remains to be seen.

It does finally appear that winter is coming to the northeast! It will be especially necessary to get those cold overnight temperatures to allow ski resorts to replenish their bases after the beating that was this weekend. We flew back from Florida yesterday with a layover in Atlanta and that line of storms was very impressive to say the least last night. Fingers cross what is actually modeled start to happen in the LR.

This is the NYC Metro Sub-forum. Albany would be Upstate NY/Pennsylvania subform.

Not really, I'm not in the city, I'm north of it. Our average #days with 1 inch or more of snow cover is somewhere around 34-40 days in an average winter. The record while I was doing my PhD research was 59 and I think that was either 14-15 or 13-14, I'd have to check when I get back. The past two seasons have been a little rough around the edges, but it helps my research honestly. I look at how they store their metabolic reserves over winter. Winters like this are awful if you are a tick so I guess that is a good think for us. It is one reason why we continue to see tick density increasing to our north and decreasing around our area. It is fascinating to watch and study. NYC (Central Park) averages roughly 25 days with 1 inch or more of snow cover from 03-04 to today. PS> If I am in the wrong place that must mean @Snow88 is really in the wrong place haha, just kidding around. We should all buy a place in Vermont.

I’m trying to figure out about this. If it snows 3 inches but then rains an inch followed by 60s, would you still like that? I never got the whole I love snow for snows’ sake. If it is going to snow I want it to stay around awhile and be pretty and usable. I hate winters like this with a passion. I want snow on the ground and I want it to stay. It means nothing if it snows and is gone. I’d rather live in Florida and travel a few times a year to Vermont or Colorado and be guaranteed snow and nice days. Perhaps I’m just getting grumpy in my older age, but snow makes everything so bright and nice. I hate the fog, misty type days. Anyone have cloud cover anomalies? I read somewhere that both 2018 and 2019 ended well above normal for cloud cover.

46 degrees here in Treasure Island, Florida and people are dressed for below zero! Will rebound today to 67. Beautiful weather to get outside and not be too hot!

Haha! If it was we'd have to move it to the vendor thread. Still not good for here when many might be at work, around kids, etc.

Bet that was a tad awkward. Then again they know you love the weather! Well today I learned there truly is a porn genre for every category including the weather desk.

Thanks a bunch. Pretty nervous to check the page at work now since I work on a campus. Luckily nobody was around when that popped up on the screen.

This cannot be a NSFW post. Please remove... That was really F***ed up. Many of us would love to keep our jobs.

Ummm ban hammer time?

The majority of us are snow weenies on here. Not many warm weenies on here, just realists. If I went by your forecasts this winter, I would already have been well over a foot of snow. Instead, I'm barely at 3 inches, so who is more accurate? Many are just looking at the trends and models and most of the models this winter have proved to be too cold and accumulations overdone, as @bluewave pointed out, you have to look at all layers, not just the pretty snow accumulation maps which are terrible.