JustinRP37

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've missed out on a blazing summer past several years. I think we're due for one.

High temp/high dew combo in the works?

We set multiple dew point records in the past two summers. It is very hard to have super high dew points and record warm conditions. We can still be very muggy and hot, but to have dews like we have been having and upper 90s to low 100s is very hard to pull off.

5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Is there fishable ice? 

Yes but just starting to get there. Very late in the season. Ice fishing derby this weekend up here. 

Made it to Bomoseen Vermont! Currently 0 outside! Have about 8 inches of snow on the ground here at the lake. Even here below average season but it looks great! Finally enjoying a winter weekend!

People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited.

Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.

6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

It's heavy freezing mist all the way up to Stowe now. Several ski areas are actually talking about how ugly the crust is getting on all exposed areas. By Saturday the areas that have been groomed should be good but firm, open natural areas will be frustrating and the only tree areas that will be skiable are under dense pines hardwoods will be out of the question for a while.

Yup same here but 33.2. I think we're pretty close now on the seasonal total.

Well you just hurt me. Put that knife in and turned. All the way up to Stowe?! 

23 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Well, I enjoyed the sun when we had it yesterday... now back to today with another migraine again

I guess the good news is we get a stretch of nicer conditions this weekend. I hate being stuck inside all day

Try getting a sun lamp. They do help and I switched our lights to Hue at home. That also helps, but this is God awful weather. 

I am glad to be heading up to Vermont in just over 24 hours. Excited to actually see some snow! It should be a great weekend but frigid up there. Even when it is gloomy, snow makes everything so much brighter, and brighter makes me happy. I need it. 

11 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Yep, it's starting to take a toll on me too. The migraines have been constant since Friday. At least we can catch a break tomorrow.

This! For me I just cannot take our weather anymore. I feel like the number of gloomy/foggy days has increased exponentially over the past 3+ years. I don't know whether it is as I get older I need sun but the past few years have been brutal. It's one reason we are so focused on job hunt outside the area.

I honestly cannot remember a winter with this many gloomy days. So ready for this to be over.

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

well you can have a decent snowstorm in march even in the city so their is still hope...

In early March I am still down but by about mid March I’m ready for it to be over. I hate spring as it is. 

1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. 

Take the extra 45 minutes, gain some elevation and latitude and head to Killington. Should be epic there. 

I swear some people think NYC is geographically located where Albany is when they show maps...

45 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

This is one of the things that bothers me about people who say "if it's not gonna snow, make it warm": we need the cold to kill off these pests and keep the ecosystem functioning. It's not about your personal comfort level.

See right there, you called mosquitos pests, but frogs and fish would call that meal time. The ecosystem needs the 'pests' quite a bit. I actually got hit hard once in a committee meeting during my PhD when I made a comment that a low tick year was great for humans. While that is true, there are plenty of other organisms that rely on ticks (some of which we probably do not even know about). The warm weather right now may actually hurt those 'pests' more than just staying seasonable. Why? Because they are becoming active and then when (if) it turns sharply cold, they will die without completing their lifecycle. These odd warm periods may through off flowering times, which may impact pollinators and a whole host of ecosystems services. Now if we were talking about reducing the spread of the invasive Asian tiger mosquito then we need much colder temperatures, just seasonable won't reduce egg viability.

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

There's no real reason not to, every threat gets worse and worse, every pattern change gets delayed and delayed. It may just not happen this winter. I'm sure it will snow again but I doubt we get a good pattern. 

Not to mention that March is 26 days away and that is one extra day that normal! ;-). I’m excited to get up to Killington in a few short weeks. 

Groundhog took the easy road out and predicted a continuation of spring this ‘winter’. What did NYC’s groundhog predict?

https://weather.com/news/news/2020-01-30-groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-did-he-see-his-shadow

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Were they always over thousands of years, not hundreds? Can you be absolutely definitive on that? What about over 100's of thousand years? And a few decades thrown in between that may have been WAY warmer than the average? Lot's of questions? Do you know? I don't.  And neither do you.

27 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm not angry towards anyone on this board? Why do you project that on me? I'm offended. Is it because I'm black??? 

You say nobody knows then attack me saying lot’s of questions and nobody knows and neither do I. Sure we don’t know what the exact temperature was 1,000,000 years ago at X location, but we can give you a fairly accurate range of what it was. I have dedicated my life thus far to science. I have worked hard to try and understand the natural world. I have studied climate modeling, looked at historical climates and patterns. Since we are from the tri-state area, I’d offer to meet you and introduce you to some of the hard working researchers that are working hard to not only to look into the past but also peek into the future. I have also given others access to scientific journals (anyone can reach out to me if they want something). 
 

Can I ask you though, what is so wrong about asking for cleaner air and water? Look up the Cuyahoga River fire of 1969 or what happened with DDT.

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Well scientist. What was the average January temperature in the Moscow region 203 years ago? Oh. You can't tell me? Your silence will be deafening, besides your reply that WILL NOT ANSWER MY QUESTION.

Why does having a discussion about this upset you so much and make you angry towards good people on this board? Nobody is attacking you. And we do have estimates of past climate. We know the earth has been warmer and colder in the past but the changes were always over thousands of years. Not a few hundred.

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Parts of the Florida Keys now flood during normal high tides. TRUE. BUT,  did those areas flood at times 3,005 years ago??? You can't answer. Have a nice night.

Actually we can answer that. The planet has been mainly a water planet at times in the past. Look at Arizona. Used to be deep under the sea. We know we have been through a lot. This isn’t anyone saying we have never. Just because humans were around doesn’t mean it wasn’t important or that we don’t know about it. Geology tells us a lot. But guess what, we can see what is coming based on current trends. Why do you think the military is spending billions on this? It isn’t a belief system. It is simply preparing for the future. 
 

Real question: how do you think we know where to look for oil and gas versus coal? Hint it has to do a lot with past hydrology.

Before calling sea level rise a lie, how about we look at some facts? You go on about humans not being able to comprehend millions of years, but this far the oceans have risen in this area by about 9 inches since 1950. That level of change wouldn’t be perceptible to the naked eye. But why don’t we go look at parts of the Jersey shore that now regularly flood with the larger tides? Why don’t we look at the fact that parts of the Florida Keys also food during normal high tides when they didn’t before. Again, as someone studying this stuff I’m not paid to make up data. We simple look at numbers. 

“Models have been terrible.” “Did you X model has snow in 6-10 days!” 5 days later as everything shows rain and 40s:  “I’ll wait until the storm is within 24 hours to get excited.” One hour later “did you see a coastal on the model for 8 days from now?” 
 

Remember there is more to a forecast than looking at models. Teleconnections don’t look great at all, but we’ll see. I won’t be excited until literally 36 hours out for any threat this year. 

25 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Theres a thread for the climate change stuff, it tends to ruin the regular threads because people cant control themselves. Wasnt your comment at all, it was anything to do with it.

Thanks just wish there was some notification or something so I don’t think I’m going crazy. It’s tough with a 16 month old even making sure I leave the house with pants some mornings. 

Just wondering, was there something I said in my comment that spurred it to being delete in a banter thread? I thought it was optimistic.

1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

More than anything, there are a lot of similarities between forecasting and investing in how our emotions affect our outlook. Two dud winters in a row is FAR from anomalous, and any mention that NY is the new VA simply laughable. Yes, there is an evolution to our climate, this is absolutely inevitable with or without greenhouse gas; and yes, greenhouse gas is likely adding another variable to that evolution. But before these two years we were talking about NY being the new Buffalo. It’s the same shortsightedness that makes for overreactive long term predictions. 
 

We don’t know how the climate will evolve, and that’s almost as much as we can say, except that indications point toward more extremes, in almost every sense. This might lead to more absolute winters—more consistent cold and snow, or warmth and dry. Who knows. 

Hyperbole much? Outside of JB nobody was seriously saying NYC was becoming the new Buffalo. We had a few big years of snow, and the majority of the big winters had sustained positive temperature departures.  Winter is our fastest warming season even with the increase in snowfall we saw for much of the past two decades, something I have studied first hand for my tick work. And climate models have been mostly accurate for our region in regards to increasing humidity, precipitation, and temperature. With that models also point out an increase in snow until the warming overwhelms. 

Just now, bluewave said:

This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

 

I honestly think people use analogs way too much. Back in October NOAA released this: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north

They honestly nailed this winter back in the beginning of October for us, but notice they bombed for Alaska. But that didn't stop JB and Twitter WX from saying EPIC COLD AND SNOW!!

Perhaps we should all do what NOAA does: "NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are favored to change. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected."

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Didnt the weeklies have a good pattern going into February?

I dont want to see long range forecasts next winter. They rarely pan out.

They were actually pretty spot on this year though. Not one was sustained on showing cold and snowy, but we all had our reasons. I'm doing a lot of head scratching and I think I allowed myself to think that maybe they weren't seeing something right.