JustinRP37

If any other real meteorologist other than JB gets on board with it then I would watch. Right now I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it. Even if it did happen, we are right back into the the torch so why waste the taxpayers money plowing and salting when it will just melt a few days later.

Dude, you have a young kid. Grow up and act like an adult for your child. If someone talking about warm weather bothers you that much, then I don’t know what to tell you. Life will be harder than a weather forum. The weather does not care about emotions or people on a board. You have to be objective with meteorology which is a science. People cannot instigate weather. People will always be disagreeable with you. Further with everything going on in the past week, weather really isn’t going to be in the top of people’s minds.

It is exactly this. I guarantee if we had a banner March with 50 inches, people would look back and say what an epic winter 2019-2020 was even though it was garbage.

It is well-deserved he has preyed upon a certain population for the decade and largely got correct because of the wrong association that snow = below average temperatures. Even though it has been snowy this decade, winter temperatures have largely been above normal minus just a few winter months between 2013 and 2015. He is always all cold, all the time why? Because it sold and made him a lot of money. Complete fraud that is in it for the money, fame, and politics, yet does not analyze real data. He lost my confidence when people caught him presenting half truths a few years ago, purposely only providing select data.

JB will ALWAYS be on the cold train. Idiots still believe the earth is cooling because of him. Look around, does it look 'cool' to you at all? Next 8-day forecast highs for the Bronx: 49, 50, 41, 36, 43, 50, 57, 61. There is exactly 1 day below average and 1 day at average. The rest are above average. Stop following JB and your life will be so much better.

What do you mean what torch? When was the last time the city even used salt this year?

Oh my comment wasn’t about you I didn’t see your post but in general I know a lot of people that just go off snow totals. One big storms makes the year for them and I’m just perplexed as a skier. That’s all. Sorry for any confusion.

Don’t you like baseball?

This!! I get so perplexed on this board and others when snow lovers are happy with a winter with one massive storm and a torch the rest of the way. I just don’t understand. Do they just like snow accumulations for bragging rights? I feel like half the people rooting for snow don’t do anything with it. I look forward to winter sports, hiking, skiing, snowshoeing, hell even ice fishing. I honestly would be happy with one 6 inch storm with cold to keep he snow around for three weeks than I would be with an 18 in her that melts in three days with a torch.

2012 started out exceptionally dry as well though, likely slowing down leaf out. March 2012 only had 0.96 inch in the bucket at the end when normal is 4.36. February likewise 1.37 inches when 3.09 inches is normal.

Well it certainly can't get much worse. What is this #4 on least snowy years in NYC? Then again we could be looking at a situation where a student gets a 28 on the first exam and improves to a 59 on the next exam. Big improvement but still failing.

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up.

See my post from yesterday. Getting to the point of the year where just below average won’t do it anymore. Those average temps are racing up now.

Dare I ask who Tony is?

Currently in our data going back to the late 70s (before I was even born) 2012 was the lowest tick season on record for us. Last year was among the bottom 5 as well. We are VERY interested on how this season will be. Early indicators are pointing to a low season.

Took my mini me up to Vermont this last weekend. We went out on Lake Bomoseen. Lake was totally frozen over, but not as thick as normal and definitely below average snow cover. Not as many ice fishing huts as normal. My son enjoyed experiencing winter nonetheless.

It is about being accurate. The people who have been saying don't trust the cold on the models are not saying that because they are biased. They are using skill and knowledge of the setup and the worldwide patterns. This knowledge is often better than a computer program. Remember models are built by humans, and it is humans that have the skills necessary for meteorology. Anyone can look at a model and say look it says cold. One of the big issues is people see snow on a model and think that will be the outcome, meanwhile there are often big keys that the models are not picking up on. Further, your statement of "this year has been exceptionally unlucky with snow but that doesn't mean anything" is not scientific at all. Do not let your emotions get in the way. Look at the pattern. Look at temperature departures from normal throughout the entire northern hemisphere. It is not just us that is having a snowless winter. Much or Europe and Russia are having a complete ratter of a year. After next week you are in March. This is the time of year where people ignore that below average in March does NOT mean always mean freezing. Average daily high for Central Park for today, February 20th, is 42.6F, by March 15th that daily high average is 49.2F and the daily mean is 42.0F. Even a -5 departure does not get the job done. It is one reason why NYC's snow season ends so quickly, especially compared to further upstate. Statistically speaking winter here is done (around the metro area) by March 15th. Can it still snow? Yes, but it will not last long. Spring Training games begin on Saturday. It is time to acknowledge this season blew and WILL NOT reach average for snowfall. At this point I am just hoping we can pull off one dusting before the season is truly done.

The acorn thing is interesting. We have not confirmed that in our own studies, but does not mean that the correlation is not there in other locations. What does seem to work is high precipitation during winter (in particular long duration snow cover) in helping increase the nymphal population in the following year. Ticks are a mid- to long-range thread haha! Not weather wise, but they are really connected to the weather.

I can definitely share some stuff, especially individually (via direct message). There are a lot of different ideas in the tick world, but it is looking more and more like warm winters like this decrease blacklegged tick numbers. Our lab has done work on repellents, seasonality, infection, etc. We also do extensive work with mosquitos too.

I posted about that in the other thread. It is very difficult to have both super high heat and the super high dew points we are having. It is one reason why coastal Florida has never broken 100 degrees. This held down our high temperatures, but elevated our low temperatures. Our highest positive departures over the past two years were actually centered between July and September. In 2018 July was +1.2C, August was +2.4C, and September was +2.3C. Only month with a higher department was May 2018 at +2.8C. In 2019, July was +2.2C and October was +2.1C. March 2019 was -0.4C and and November was -1.8C for departures.

Just put together data for my tick report using HPN data for our upcoming tick season. From January 2018 through January 2020, we have had 16 above normal months (>+0.3 C departure), 4 normal months (-0.3C < Normal < +0.3C), and 5 below average months (<-0.3C). Since January 2018 our average monthly mean temperatures have been running 1.0C above average or 1.7F above average. Not a whole lot of 'cold' to speak of. Not the greatest departure that we have seen over the last decade, but we are routinely above average. Doesn't mean it can't snow. Snow does not mean cold in the 2000s, most of the time time it means just cold enough.

We set multiple dew point records in the past two summers. It is very hard to have super high dew points and record warm conditions. We can still be very muggy and hot, but to have dews like we have been having and upper 90s to low 100s is very hard to pull off.

Yes but just starting to get there. Very late in the season. Ice fishing derby this weekend up here.

Made it to Bomoseen Vermont! Currently 0 outside! Have about 8 inches of snow on the ground here at the lake. Even here below average season but it looks great! Finally enjoying a winter weekend!

People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited. Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.