JustinRP37

It seems like each spring now we get stuck in backdoor purgatory and I am struggling to find a reasonable explanation. Very odd spring patterns lately around here. Will be very interesting to see how ticks are this spring/summer once we can get back to our routine sampling (if we can get to that sampling). Usually after winters like this they are much lower in our experience.

I read this as 4 inches in Margaritaville and got very concerned. But at least it is 5 o'clock somewhere.

If ever there was a year to have high humidity, heat, and clear skies, this would be it. Viral droplets do not spread efficiently in humidity and sunshine will help kill them off. It isn't a huge reduction in R0 but ANY reduction in R0 is a good thing.

Why is spring always so miserable?? The models continue to show well-below average temperatures. The past couple of years have been sad, too warm for winter sports in the area and then springs are a washout. The poor weather dependent businesses. At least this year they aren't missing much because of COVID-19.

Yeah, but even in our best of springs, it is still very gloomy for April. I tend to always try to take a vacation at least in March to sunshine. Few years ago for our baby moon we had an awesome trip to San Diego, Palm Springs, and Phoenix for 10 days. Oh to go back to those days. Seriously though was looking for jobs out that way before the coronavirus struck, need a change of scenery.

God if I could avoid March 15-May15th every year I'd be one happy person. Love winter, love summer, tolerate fall, but absolutely hate spring in the northeast.

Take a look at the temperature profiles. White rain if that.

I know a lot of people would love snow, but honestly, any snow would be about the last thing we need right now. Let's not hope and wish for snow. We do not need anyone wasting time plowing snow and salting walkways. Our buildings maintenance team is stressed to the max making sure door knobs, elevator buttons, mailboxes, hallways, etc are all disinfected regularly. The last thing they or anyone else needs is to have to add in 'snow removal' to their duties. The growing season has also begun across much of the subform, so we are firmly in spring mode and if ever there was a year to wish for boring weather for awhile, this is it.

No but I do remember being able to buy toilet paper on past St. Patrick’s Days and fresh meat.

In this area it is primarily the blacklegged tick. Dog ticks do not transmit Lyme. There has been one study that seemed to indicate Lyme spirochetes know sexual fluid, but that isn’t the primary mode of infection.

You are both correct. The blacklegged tick (deer tick) loves our more typical climate. The likes of which New Hampshire area saw this year. They like it cold but not overly cold with at least an inch of snowpack for a good chunk of winter. That allows them to remain in diapause and really slow their metabolism down. Flip side if you get REALLY cold with no snow cover (think negatives in Fahrenheit) and dry, they can also die off. Problem is you usually have a snow pack when the really cold air comes. It is one reason we might see the distribution we see them in. Years like this will definitely lead to lower numbers, but always remember the tick that gave you Lyme disease is the tick you did not find!

Looks like a few ski areas are throwing in the towel after today. What a garbage southern NY/New England ski season. Really feel for the local hills. Hopefully northern NY/New England can still have a decent spring.

One other thing, people keep comparing this to the flu and how the flu numbers dwarf it. I even see medics doctors saying this. The swine flu outbreak in 2009 began in April it went on to infect over 600 million but had a lower death rate. It was a pandemic and still continues to circulate today. If you compare the numbers by time since first discovery, COVID-19 is way ahead for countries infected, case numbers, and deaths.

One thing I keep seeing both on the media and social media is people talking about “well my doctor said this or my doctor said that”. Most medical doctors have no formal training in epidemiology. Most Medical doctors are also not infectious disease specialists. A general practitioner will have som familiarity with diseases of course, but not in their spread. Listen to what epidemiologists are saying along with CDC. The issue with COVID-19 is not people under 39. It is people over 70. Above 80 the death rate is over 14%. If my grandparents were alive today, that is not a risk I’d take by visiting them. That said be as clean as possible. And avoid large gatherings for now. If you have the option to work from home, take it!!

Stats people. This is for HPN. mean is 3.79. But the median would be well below that based on the clustering below 2 inches. That mean of 3.79 inches is pulled up by the extreme outliers showing insane snow amounts. This looks like white rain if we even see snow. As much as I would love to put on my snow goggles, I have to look at what the models are putting out.

We really need next winter to be a big one. Start early, end late. The local ski areas have really struggled both in attendance and financially. Big mountains up north can weather the storm so to speak, but in CT and downstate NY, this has been a tough winter for them. Know some people in the business and it is really tough on them. Summer of 2018 was above normal just about the whole summer with steam bath dew points that limited the daily highs.

It is impressive given the past few Marches. Also, compared to climatology it is impressive. Average daily mean for next Tuesday is around 38 degrees F in the park. Also, we have never broken 90 in the park in March. the monthly record is 86 which was last reached on March 31st, 1998.

Looking like we could really see a run at 70 next week. That is truly impressive and will be the first spring break to feel like spring around here for those on break. Few years ago we spent spring break on our 'babymoon' covering San Diego, Palm Spring, Mount San Jacinto, and Phoenix. It was amazing and probably my favorite area of the country. From the beach to snow in one day? Yes please!

I mean would you really want one storm surrounded by 50s just to remind you of what could have been? I honestly hate when we get a storm and it immediately warms up. Such a waste. Look at it like this, at least we won’t have to spend millions on storm cleanup and could potentially use that should the Coronavirus threat increase.

Wow thanks for letting me know how you feel.

I hear you but like @gravitylover's suggestion. Rutland has a great Amtrak station right downtown. That is our favorite area of Vermont, and Killington. Get up there and enjoy winter. While March is definitely more of a spring month for us, it is definitively a winter month up there most years.

I'm from SNE originally and my parents are still there. I'm actually up for the weekend visiting. It is a much different climate here than the metro area. Always has been. Overnight temperatures are always much different. SNE will almost always be in a better shape than we are for snow. If the threat is marginal for SNE, then it isn't even a threat in our area 95% of the time. Have you been able to get up north this winter? It is worth escaping for a weekend before nobody is left in winter mode.

Still wouldn't lose any sleep on this next 'threat' until Tuesday/Wednesday at the earliest for our forum. Right now, it looks like this would be for eastern New England. Especially with the progressive flow. We can hope it comes back but again with a sea of warmth before and after the storm we have to wonder is it worth spending millions on cleanup if it will just melt quickly? Those storms usually end up depressing me further as it just shows what the season could have been.

Up in CT for the weekend. Good burst of snow going right now. Feels good! Going for a walk.

Very true very true.