JustinRP37

People hold on to their beliefs way too much. Just go with the flow. I will never understand how seriously some take weather and the discussion of warmer versus cooler. I've had people jump down my throat when I say it looks warm just because it isn't the news they want to hear. I predicted that this month would be normal to just above normal (turns out it will be ever so slightly below normal if you want to call it that), but you'd have thought I was suggesting torch. The overnight lows on the warm days really do tend to keep us disproportionately warm. We were lucky that for November we had quite a few clear nights which allowed for strong radiational cooling, otherwise, I think we would have firmly been above normal this month. But I will say the worst snow winters I have lived through all tended to have early snow, so I for one am glad it didn't snow yet. For December, I am thinking it will again be near normal to just above normal, with normal chances for snow. There just isn't much out there right now to scream cold or torch so along we go descending into the darkest part of the year followed shortly by the coldest time of year. This is also the time of year that people hopefully realize "normal" temperatures can generate snow. So to those who want warm and those who want cold, we don't control the outcome and no amount of hoping/hyping will get the desired outcome. As long as it isn't 36 with a driving rain, I'll be as happy as I can be and hopefully we can get some nice skiing in this year.

My point is JB is always cold. He literally writes about global cooling and the coming ice age. Many others hype for clicks and then slowly walk back statements. But JB is way too biased to even be taken at face value these days. I still think we see some colder weather in December and am hoping for some snow but I won’t buy the hysteria of extreme cold etc right now.

If you go by ANYTHING that JB says these days I pity you. He is all about the clickbait. Unfortunately sensational headlines generate revenue. Hence why you rarely hear how much progress you hear about how well we are actually doing with covid now with vaccines, treatments, etc. gotta drum up hysteria to get clicks which in turn = $$$

That’s one reason I think even if we have a warm winter, we will at least get one or two huge snowfalls. I am just hopeful that we finally have a white Christmas again.

Yeah I can see that. I just really think these overnight lows are going to prove more difficult than we anticipate.

That’s a pretty big cool down there and bold call. I’m just not seeing much on the extended that makes me think these overnight lows truly get to sustained below average. Few nights with cloud cover and some humidity and that -1.5 call will be tough given the cards we have been dealt. I think no doubt it will be cooler than it has been but not ready to say firmly below average.

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year.

If I never see a tweet or word mentioned by the clown known as Joe Bastardi, I would be pleased. He is a master at hype and spin with very little substance.

The one thing too is we have been incredibly wet for a long period of time now. I wouldn’t be shocked if we flipped to a much drier pattern for winter. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

I meant 55 in December and muggy like he was talking about that one Christmas. It was gross.

That is literally the worst weather. Too cold for ac but the heat just makes it swampy inside. Uncomfortable sleeping weather.

And we are still adding to September!! Please let us dry out!!!

Thats because Florida is on the southern side of the subtropical range and is humid. Florida is one of my favorite places. I know the ecology down there quite well. Go inland a bit and when things get dry you will see brief periods of dormancy, however it is much rarer in Florida. Go to Phoenix and see the amazing difference between the dry season and the monsoon season.

This is a very poor definition to go by because even in our hottest climates, plants will go dormant during the dry season. Cold temperature is not the only thing that forces biological life into dormancy, dry seasons do too as do the hot seasons. Take a look at the list of climates on wikipedia and see which one matches up with NYC "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Köppen_climate_classification"

As an ecologist your 'textbook' definition is not what the Koppen system uses. You are also being a little too narrow in your definition of adjacent. What is the immediate climate to our south if not subtropical? North Carolina most definitely has a subtropical climate, yet they are still hundreds of miles from the true 'tropics'. Also, ocean modify climate in a huge way. If you drive directly west of NYC, would you not think the weather is far different? This time of year, you can board a train in GCT and head to the closer northern suburbs and also experience a completely different temperature. When we say NYC is subtropical, we do not mean all the way up to Albany. The next northern climate definition is humid continental climate. The temperature definition for humid continental climate is the coldest month MUST average between 32F and 26.6F. Manhattan DOES NOT experience this on a regular basis anymore. A humid subtropical climate "A humid subtropical climate is a zone of climate characterized by hot and humid summers, and cool to mild winters. These climates normally lie on the southeast side of all continents, generally between latitudes 25° and 40° (sometimes 46°) and are located poleward from adjacent tropical climates." NOTE NYC IS AT 40.7° N. Parts of Europe are even further north and are subtropical. If you don't like the term subtropical, you can call it warm temperate. The coldest month in a humid subtropical climate can still average between 32F and 27F, but the warmest month must average 72F or higher. NYC has had this in every summer in recent history. If you feel that science is not right, you can research the issue and publish your findings.

That doesn’t sound good! Heart palpitations can be stress induced, but there is also Lyme carditis (https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/treatment/lymecarditis.html) to be on the look out for. Ticks are definitely responsible for more disease in our latitude than mosquitoes. It could also be that rock and roll lifestyle haha. But getting outside is still one of the healthiest things we can do.

It is difficult for a variety of reasons (not to mention a very bad idea). It is very difficult to target just a single type of insect. No matter how we do it, there are often non-target species that die off. In Florida they have released GMO mosquitos that will hopefully reduce the population. But more on the ecology side, we don’t want to make mosquitoes extinct. The larval stage feeds tons of amphibians and fish. They are quite beneficial to aquatic systems. We could work to control the larvae stage through fish, etc and many areas do this. You can stock a small pond with fish that will consume abundant larvae. The adult stage as well fed a variety of organisms. While we hate them, and believe me, I get bit aa ton, they are beneficial. Once disease starts spreading though, you Weill see health departments start spraying. NJ actually has one of the best mosquito programs in the country.

Vector disease ecologist here, and yeah NYC is definitely now in the subtropical category. The humid continental climate now begins just north of the city. This isn't anyone "re-defining" anything. Overnight low temperatures have increased dramatically. Our daytime highs is NOT where we have seen the most substantial increases.

Water coming in our new windows and freshly painted bedroom. Sigh we are getting ready for a move. Don’t need more damage. Gonna try to sleep. This is intense. Never have I seen rain this hard for this long.

The white circle around the S indicates post-tropical storm not tropical storm. Meaning it won’t be a warm core storm. Still sizable but the terminology can be confusing.

Well DeBlasio telling people to stand in a field during a thunderstorm is up there too. Only thing missing was asking people to stand near a metal flagpole.

Geographically you are right but population based it is only Manhattanites haha

Just the rain story alone is a big deal after what we went through Thursday.

I am shocked to see so many writing this storm off especially on the waste of time that is social media. This is going to be a very serious storm for most of CT and parts of LI. The ground is already completely saturated from Fred. I’ve been in central CT and we still have roads that had huge issues Thursday. The power companies are struggling to stay ahead for preps.