JustinRP37

I don't know... Population wise, I'd say far more people are in the snow zone than out of it. Long Island and coastal CT are definitely in our forum area and the metropolitan area. As is coastal NJ. Sorry for the inland, north and west folks.

This run is still fantastic for MOST of the Metro Area. Everyone needs to practice some meditation and breath. Looking at the snow maps that will still be a day with many airline cancellations and travel disruptions. It will be a perfect day to head outside and enjoy a snowfall! Who knows, maybe once we really start seeing more data, the models will shift a bit west. No amount of getting upset will change the weather.

Holy crap we cancel storms now if they are less than 2 feet? A 3-8 inch snowfall is STILL a significant amount of snow for the metro area. Granted we all want a blockbuster, but let's get real. This is a nice storm still in an otherwise dry winter. It looks to bring NYC up to AVERAGE for the time of year for snowfall.

Sometimes having too many cooks in the kitchen is not a good thing. Even worse having all those cooks in the kitchen making for for 4+ days later. We want models to go out further yet their predictive power goes down exponentially the further out they go.

Honestly, don't pour concrete in February. You won't have a period of sustained 27+ temperatures and pouring when cold substantially increases the risk of cracking. It is 100% not worth it for an investment of this size. Even if February torches to daytime temps of 45+, nights can still be cold to frigid.

Rank the following: Winter, snow, cold, warm, baseball, and beach. I know you are big into baseball so I'm curious to see your ranking of these!

We have already seen snow this month and we aren't far from normal January snowfall... For the season we are still below average, but I am personally impressed that there is still snow on the ground in Armonk in most wooded areas from the earlier storm.

I’m just saying it is interesting to see MJO with the snow goggles, you with the sunglasses, and the majority of people discussing various results from cold to warm although there is a slight cold bias overall. No offense to anyone haha

I normally don't post about the LR, and I typically do appreciate your posts, but have you ever once showed anything that is either normal or cold? LR forecasts for January really busted hard just as those cold calls for December busted hard. This year the LR has abysmal performance despite what anyone says. Based on what I have seen, I am thinking that February will wind up closer to normal with a typical thaw week. I do think there will be storm chances or even just small nuisance storms.

Anyone thinking that we can't go from single digits and low teens to above freezing quickly clearly wasn't looking at thermometers around the area today as the winds shifted to off the water. The ocean is still much above normal for this time of year, which given the right storm track could throw much more moisture back our way, but given a bad storm track could quickly warm us up.

Yeah the very warm December brought some things back out. Well now that has been dealt with. Usually you start worrying about Monarch butterflies in the early fall if you still see them here. They have to leave for Mexico!

Snow is a great insulator and prevent desiccation of insects and arachnids overwintering. Extreme cold with no snow cover can kill them. If you hate ticks you don’t want a lot of snow on the ground when we get the frigid weather. This weekend may beat some back!

Think 7 pages for this may be a new record for the board.

At my parents for the holiday! It’s a white Christmas in central Connecticut! My three year old son is absolutely loving it! I really do hope we get some nice winter weather in January-March. Happy Holidays everyone! I hope that the next year brings us all health, positivity, and the weather that we all want!

We will have missed about three weeks of normal southern NY and southern New England ski season. Winter for most people is more than just watching snowfall. It is about actually enjoying winter sports and toys. The overnight lows have sucked and been way too warm to even make snow.

Number one rule about science… Leave your personal biases at the door and look at the data only. Climatology matters as well. Much of Canada and the arctic is also will above normal for this time of year as well right now. I do think the second half of winter will produce some. My initial call in November was for slightly above normal temperatures and near normal snowfall. I now think we will be firmly above normal considered 1/3 of met winter will have been a torch, but I still think we get close to normal snowfall (albeit I must admit I am nervous).

For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha.

You of all people get a bird's eye view of all of this. The record heat out west is pretty crazy!

I have a sneaking suspicion that this year our winter is confined to January. There is a lot of hype about the upcoming pattern, but I remain skeptical. I would be on a return to more normal temperatures, but nothing truly shocking for the time of year. We are also in an incredibly dry period, which makes sense given how wet spring through early fall were. That being said it only takes one knockout snowstorm for NYC to reach close to its average snowfall, even in a warm year. The past few weeks have been absolutely gorgeous and I must admit that for the first time ever, I don't really want any truly polar air this winter because of the cost of heating this winter. Although I do want a lot of snow in Vermont to head up and go skiing! I see DJF finishing above average in temperature overall with January being closer to average. For precipitation I see that as being normal to just below normal. I definitely don't see this being a 2013-2014 or 2014-2015 type winter.

In that case we might be able to plant palm trees and have them live in NYC until I die...

This is how I wrapped up my ecology class this semester. It is certainly depressing. Also all the plastics everywhere. This is an alarming video of it. We have to think about our place in the world and stop with just the convenience of one time use plastics. Our planet is truly amazing and we are linked directly with it. From climate to our health.

We haven't had many 'cold' winters in the past decade. Snowy yes, cold no. The two big exceptions were 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Otherwise we have largely been warmer than average. Next week is mid December, we are going to want to see models continuing to show closer to average temperatures if we are to have a seasonable Christmas. And for the last time, people saying the warm up looks muted, you MUST take a look at low temperatures too! Our low temperatures are and have been warming more than our high temperatures.

I always love your optimism. Meanwhile I’m worried about being able to ski in CT during Christmas week!

It is sad to me how some really good mets have gotten carried away more with clicks and fame than their science. I remind my students all the time we all have to acknowledge our personal biases and look solely at data. Unfortunately many can't these days it seems. I'd give my left kidney to have a white Christmas every year. Used to be able to ski in southern New England by Christmas just about every year on a most fully open mountain. Now it is rare. This year is looking tough too so far. I am hopeful, but we gotta drop the overnight lows!

Just as long as the best doesn't include the person from central PA, where we live in a fantasy land of cooling despite all the evidence to the contrary. What is a warminista?