JustinRP37

We will have missed about three weeks of normal southern NY and southern New England ski season. Winter for most people is more than just watching snowfall. It is about actually enjoying winter sports and toys. The overnight lows have sucked and been way too warm to even make snow.

Number one rule about science… Leave your personal biases at the door and look at the data only. Climatology matters as well. Much of Canada and the arctic is also will above normal for this time of year as well right now. I do think the second half of winter will produce some. My initial call in November was for slightly above normal temperatures and near normal snowfall. I now think we will be firmly above normal considered 1/3 of met winter will have been a torch, but I still think we get close to normal snowfall (albeit I must admit I am nervous).

For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha.

You of all people get a bird's eye view of all of this. The record heat out west is pretty crazy!

I have a sneaking suspicion that this year our winter is confined to January. There is a lot of hype about the upcoming pattern, but I remain skeptical. I would be on a return to more normal temperatures, but nothing truly shocking for the time of year. We are also in an incredibly dry period, which makes sense given how wet spring through early fall were. That being said it only takes one knockout snowstorm for NYC to reach close to its average snowfall, even in a warm year. The past few weeks have been absolutely gorgeous and I must admit that for the first time ever, I don't really want any truly polar air this winter because of the cost of heating this winter. Although I do want a lot of snow in Vermont to head up and go skiing! I see DJF finishing above average in temperature overall with January being closer to average. For precipitation I see that as being normal to just below normal. I definitely don't see this being a 2013-2014 or 2014-2015 type winter.

In that case we might be able to plant palm trees and have them live in NYC until I die...

This is how I wrapped up my ecology class this semester. It is certainly depressing. Also all the plastics everywhere. This is an alarming video of it. We have to think about our place in the world and stop with just the convenience of one time use plastics. Our planet is truly amazing and we are linked directly with it. From climate to our health.

We haven't had many 'cold' winters in the past decade. Snowy yes, cold no. The two big exceptions were 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Otherwise we have largely been warmer than average. Next week is mid December, we are going to want to see models continuing to show closer to average temperatures if we are to have a seasonable Christmas. And for the last time, people saying the warm up looks muted, you MUST take a look at low temperatures too! Our low temperatures are and have been warming more than our high temperatures.

I always love your optimism. Meanwhile I’m worried about being able to ski in CT during Christmas week!

It is sad to me how some really good mets have gotten carried away more with clicks and fame than their science. I remind my students all the time we all have to acknowledge our personal biases and look solely at data. Unfortunately many can't these days it seems. I'd give my left kidney to have a white Christmas every year. Used to be able to ski in southern New England by Christmas just about every year on a most fully open mountain. Now it is rare. This year is looking tough too so far. I am hopeful, but we gotta drop the overnight lows!

Just as long as the best doesn't include the person from central PA, where we live in a fantasy land of cooling despite all the evidence to the contrary. What is a warminista?

People hold on to their beliefs way too much. Just go with the flow. I will never understand how seriously some take weather and the discussion of warmer versus cooler. I've had people jump down my throat when I say it looks warm just because it isn't the news they want to hear. I predicted that this month would be normal to just above normal (turns out it will be ever so slightly below normal if you want to call it that), but you'd have thought I was suggesting torch. The overnight lows on the warm days really do tend to keep us disproportionately warm. We were lucky that for November we had quite a few clear nights which allowed for strong radiational cooling, otherwise, I think we would have firmly been above normal this month. But I will say the worst snow winters I have lived through all tended to have early snow, so I for one am glad it didn't snow yet. For December, I am thinking it will again be near normal to just above normal, with normal chances for snow. There just isn't much out there right now to scream cold or torch so along we go descending into the darkest part of the year followed shortly by the coldest time of year. This is also the time of year that people hopefully realize "normal" temperatures can generate snow. So to those who want warm and those who want cold, we don't control the outcome and no amount of hoping/hyping will get the desired outcome. As long as it isn't 36 with a driving rain, I'll be as happy as I can be and hopefully we can get some nice skiing in this year.

My point is JB is always cold. He literally writes about global cooling and the coming ice age. Many others hype for clicks and then slowly walk back statements. But JB is way too biased to even be taken at face value these days. I still think we see some colder weather in December and am hoping for some snow but I won’t buy the hysteria of extreme cold etc right now.

If you go by ANYTHING that JB says these days I pity you. He is all about the clickbait. Unfortunately sensational headlines generate revenue. Hence why you rarely hear how much progress you hear about how well we are actually doing with covid now with vaccines, treatments, etc. gotta drum up hysteria to get clicks which in turn = $$$

That’s one reason I think even if we have a warm winter, we will at least get one or two huge snowfalls. I am just hopeful that we finally have a white Christmas again.

Yeah I can see that. I just really think these overnight lows are going to prove more difficult than we anticipate.

That’s a pretty big cool down there and bold call. I’m just not seeing much on the extended that makes me think these overnight lows truly get to sustained below average. Few nights with cloud cover and some humidity and that -1.5 call will be tough given the cards we have been dealt. I think no doubt it will be cooler than it has been but not ready to say firmly below average.

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year.

If I never see a tweet or word mentioned by the clown known as Joe Bastardi, I would be pleased. He is a master at hype and spin with very little substance.

The one thing too is we have been incredibly wet for a long period of time now. I wouldn’t be shocked if we flipped to a much drier pattern for winter. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

I meant 55 in December and muggy like he was talking about that one Christmas. It was gross.

That is literally the worst weather. Too cold for ac but the heat just makes it swampy inside. Uncomfortable sleeping weather.

And we are still adding to September!! Please let us dry out!!!

Thats because Florida is on the southern side of the subtropical range and is humid. Florida is one of my favorite places. I know the ecology down there quite well. Go inland a bit and when things get dry you will see brief periods of dormancy, however it is much rarer in Florida. Go to Phoenix and see the amazing difference between the dry season and the monsoon season.