JustinRP37

Titus is 60% open, Whiteface 78%, and Gore is just 55% open. While yes they look great right now and have had some recent snow, this is still a struggle bus of season. Things are better in the Green Mountains in Vermont finally. Let’s hope this week pushes all of these areas closer to the elusive 100% open.

Yeah I heard that. It actually snowed a bit at Belleayre yesterday and never got above 36.

I was looking at webcams of ski areas throughout the northeast and some are still really struggling. Even further north nobody is approaching 100% open and we are about 6-8 weeks from when the northern mountains start losing trails. For the southern mountains that usually starts within 4-6 weeks. Was at Belleayre though yesterday and it was great overall.

Skiing at Thunder Ridge today was pretty good. Schools closed for some reason so I took the day to get him in skis. Loved it. Just a tough season though. edit> and snow came down heavy for a bit. Probably a half inch.

I don't know if they will have enough cold then, but then watch April be a string of 30s for highs and low 20s for lows with drizzle during the day just because.

Looking ahead, I don't see even many nights conducive to snow making. I think this will be a short ski season for most wrapping up in early March in southern New England and early April for most of New England. This won't be a season where we see skiing on Superstar at Killington through May.

I do wonder how much base climatology goes into models at 240+ hours out. Like how much of it is driven by actual atmospheric modeling versus trying to bring about climate norms. Because this is not unique to just this year. Bottom line this winter is historically bad thus far and even if that changes, it doesn't fix the fact that 2/3rds of met winter have been garbage.

Amazing heading into the last full week of January and ski area are still far from 100% open. This “season” really sucks. I’m just ready to get it over with at this point. Even if things get cold for March it’s too late imo. everyday is the same right now cloudy and damp or rainy.

Here is a forecast that is likely to be 100% correct: we will see overnight lows below freezing sometime between now and next weekend. Likewise sometime between now and July we will experience days with a high in the 80s.

At this point I'd take a rain shadow. It's too wet! This damn Seattle pattern is annoying.

What do you mean? The foothills aren’t tall enough for rain shadows etc.

If you are moving from the city stay in the east side of the river for your sanity if you are staying with your job in the city. We love Putnam county plus you can always see snow at Thunder Ridge and it is an easy commute to the city with no damn bridge.

I hereby name winter 2022-2023 the winter of Seattle. Just a boring, dreary winter. I have only worn my true winter coat about 4 times. Blame me for buying skis and a snowblower this year. Sigh.

At least I got to experience some tropical downpours this past week in the Caribbean. Same boring pattern here.

Exactly this! The oceans take up a ton of the carbon we put in the atmosphere. That is also why the pH of the ocean has steadily decreased since the Industrial Revolution, but also why warming was not seen early on. It is basically the same mechanism as a soda stream. You increase the CO2 above the water and it goes into the water forming our favorite carbonated beverages. I have attached an image I use in my climate lecture for my non-major students. You can see that natural forcings enough (the long-term forcings caused by our orbit and natural solar cycles) to attribute for our current warming, but the effects with natural + anthropogenic match up pretty darn well. Plus I have never understood how people can ignore the laws of thermodynamics when it comes to internal combustion. Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, yet some want to believe that billions of engines and furnaces all over the world burning fuel can't change the 'energy' in our system, which is earth's atmosphere. It really is mind boggling.

Well at least for the time being this record should be solidly safe... For now. Thanks!

Anyone know the record is for number of continuous nights above freezing in January? I'm curious. Driving by Thunder Ridge and it is BLEAK!

Unbelievable that we are so warm. I can't remember a winter where we have been ABOVE freezing even at night way up into the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Just stop with the, but this is only January 4th. People who depend on winter (aka most of the states just listed) are absolutely going to be hurting. Just take a look at the icecoast subreddit. We are seeing ski areas that are barely open in JANUARY!! Even if we turn sharply colder with no natural snow it will take a miracle to get these ski areas 100% open for MLK weekend. The bulk of money made for northeast ski season is literally right now through President's Day weekend. This is historically bad as they aren't even able to make snow right now. Luckily many areas did have a decent Christmas week, but things are bleak right now. Let's hope we can at least have freezing overnights as currently modeled.

Southern Taconics then haha. Too many to think about. Drove up to the Catskills today then back to Poughkeepsie. Last day off for my son before school tomorrow. He had his heart set on skiing this break... but alas can't count on Christmas skiing anymore.

Everyone can blame me this year buying a new snowblower AND new skis. That is the perfecta. Of course I will take credit should it turn around ;).

I’m turning off the boiler off tonight for tomorrow. We can save on oil and use space heaters if needed. Might even need AC to reduce the humidity… in January in the foothills of the Catskills.

And still too warm to make snow during the day even in the mountains. This is incredible for this time of year. Ski areas are doing their best but it is looking bleaker than any time I can remember.

It what strikes me is all the people just hoping for snow. How about we actually get snowmaking temperatures first? This ski season is off to a very dismal start. I do think we are in the decade we will start seeing some smaller areas close permanently due to the expense of relying fully in man made snow. This isn’t like the past anymore. It seems more and more that we need to thread the needle just to get decent snow making temperatures let alone snow. Then when even normal climatic conditions return we torch. It is frustrating.

I do not put much faith in any model over a week out. No model had this near historic heat coming just a few weeks ago, so middle of January flip a coin as to whether it will be warm or cold. I tend to think it will flip back to cold for another few weeks, but I do not think this is going to be a great winter. Just looking at the next week it will be hard to even make snow in Vermont, let alone how much the temps will chew at the already predominately man made base. I feel more and more each year for the smaller mountains having to charge astronomical rates just to cover the costs of covering the mountain in man-made snow. Even if we have a warm winter it would be nice to at least have 20 degree nights in the mountains to pump out the snow.

Ya’ll can blame me for the warm up. I bought new skis and a snow blower this year. The kiss of death for winter. I’m seriously depressed looking at early January but I have hope the warm up won’t be all that long. I’m we will be on a cruise in January so hopefully things reset.