JustinRP37

Big update, the LIRR will be shutting down on many branches this evening. That is the first big change to MTA service.

Starting to snow here. Still have a good 3-6 on the ground still from January. This is getting exciting!

That's because you are living and dying by models runs. Globals are not as great to pinpoint amounts now. This happened 100% last storm too and the NWS was pretty much spot on. Unless the high-resolutions models and what is currently happening begins to look like it won't happen, go by the NWS forecast.

Just don't hide good information. My posts were hidden and based on the law. Many people do not know your insurance will not cover you when a travel ban is in place. It is serious and can bankrupt the average person easily. And if you MUST travel be sure that your employer will back you by calling you essential. I know there are cases in education where food service is clearly essential, but insurance didn't want to cover those employees getting to campus. The employer then had to do battle to say they were.

I'm not a met, but in environmental science at the college level. But part of the reason for what you are seeing for on-air mets, is many of them are actually not mets anymore. I think Lonnie Quinn is great, but his formal training is not in meteorology. His degree is in communications. He has really committed to learning meteorology though. Many have not though and simply follow the models.

Metro-North to be hourly tomorrow. Sigh... I hope they don't damage more trains trying to keep service going. It was a disaster after the last storm for weeks after because of the mechanical failures caused by snow getting into electronics.

They most certainly can. What do you think a curfew is when there is unrest? Doesn’t mean you have to abide by it but they can arrest you for it if you are causing an issue. And as I said earlier when a travel ban is issued your insurance will not cover you if you get into an accident unless you are essential. whoever deleted that without the others sorry but not okay.

They most certainly can. What do you think a curfew is when there is unrest? Doesn’t mean you have to abide by it but they can arrest you for it if you are causing an issue. And as I said earlier when a travel ban is issued your insurance will not cover you if you get into an accident unless you are essential.

I love that I got the poop emoji for saying governments can limited transportation during emergencies. Sad that civics and history aren’t taught. Look up why the interstate highway system was developed. Also, if you think NY is bad live in Ohio with their stupid snow level warnings. They use them to ban traffic far more often than we do and often for far less. I routinely make fun of my in-laws for how easy it is to shut down everything out there.

So many people think because they come on weather forums during storms that suddenly they know better than trained mets and the NWS. The flop like a fish out of water with each model run. It really does make the place unbearable. Even before the last storm people were complaining about the nws not lowering amounts.

No it wouldn’t. Governments do have the right to shut down roadways to non-essential traffic during emergencies.

Just as an fyi if you are driving in a travel ban as a non-essential person and get into an accident, your insurance will NOT cover the damage. You will also receive a major fine

The GFS does have a better track record with Nor’Easters. There has been enough GFS bashing here. The model really is not THAT bad. Among the big ones they all have their strengths. But so far seeing the other models come towards the GFS has been great.

Just looking at the data here those are scientifically significant differences most likely. I’d have to run stats but eyeballing it looks like they are not significantly different among the big models.

Yes! I think that was the one. I was still in tuckahoe and it quickly went to sleet then plain rain. Then I knew we had a massive bust.

Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table.

This is a very weird winter. If it is this dry in June-August we are in trouble. As much as I love the blue bird days…

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring.

I think that is right because it was before my son was born.

Very true, but it wasn’t that long ago we had that record breaking cold snap in mid March even down to the coast with night temps dipping to the single digits. I remember because I was in Vermont and opted for a spa day with my wife since it was in the single digits with below zero wind chills. That was an insane March. I’d have to look at my photo album for when that was.

Jesus Christ some people are unbearable lately on here. I get that many are sick of winter but wishing it away isn’t going to work. Why, suddenly, are so many people saying winters end in mid February in our region? That is statistically and categorically false. On a probability standpoint we just past the most snowy portion of winter. It doesn’t completely drop off. Growing up St. Patty’s day really felt like the end of winter with ski areas turning more to slush and yards melting. I’d be very very shocked if we put up a goose egg the rest of winter.

Been reading some about the incoming El Niño and some good researchers are saying this looks like it could lead to 2026-2028 being really warm especially in the summer. I do think that with as dry as the whole US has been that once we turn warm we will be pretty hot. I am not ready for ski season to end, so all this talk of everyone being done with winter isn’t accurate. Plus we have the Winter Olympics going on!

Ahh no. Sun is no where near August 10th. We still have more darkness than daylight. We are still in November sun. 6 weeks to the equinox. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Advanced degrees are different. A bachelor’s it is incredibly difficult to fail out of if you keep showing up. Masters and PhDs and MDs do have a lot not mae it for various reasons. But the sad thing is we are seeing very few males in STEM. I have very few males in many of my classes now.

Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now.