JakkelWx

Euro model has a strong trough moving through the region around the D9 timeframe but not quite the look I'm looking for if we want decent wintry precip. Ridge a little too strong in the NW and not quite in the most favorable spot, and the SW over California will have a tough time transferring energy to the trough in the east in that location. In general I think late Nov - early December timeframe will have multiple opportunities after the pattern shuffle warm up.

That's pretty close to cold powder in November. Impressive.

How long should I microwave a 25 lb turkey for Thanksgiving? Asking for a friend.

noticed the higher moon angle tonight not a good sign for winter

BAMWX supports the idea of a trend to colder than normal risks for December. What is interesting is the ridge in the SW US. That would signify a weakening of the STJ. EPS showing the idea of a -NAO developing just in time for Thanksgiving. Should be fun.

Could this be the fabled appearance of the Bay affect snow?

Not sure about you guys but I'd RUN. The end times are coming: Jokes aside, this is one of the best sunsets I've ever seen. Photos didn't do it justice though.

DP has fallen to 27 degrees. Currently 36/27.

Yeah don't take their forecast to heart, especially recently with the bad model runs for December about a week ago. Now the disaster torch that was advertised over the past couple of weeks seem to be getting pushed back and now it isn't so much a torch now but just generally mild, so I see how they have a higher confidence for BN vs AN. I have noticed that it may end up being the opposite of last year when the long range seasonal/monthly models kept on kicking the can down the road for a NAO block of all blocks that never actually happened until it was too late. The models this year may end up pushing the unfavorable setups back and we could end up averaging a legit -NAO for the winter.

BAMWX surprisingly coming up with a BN December.

Mood flakes baby!!

FTFY

I hated that dry slot. We stopped at like 13 inches before it sleeted, then a couple inches on the backside. The dry slot caused it to start sleeting because we were too close to the r/s line plus the rates weren't high enough.

68 degrees here. First 60s of the 2019-20 winter.

There is hardly anything exciting about the 12z NAM.. barely a flake in my yard seems like a good call. Next..

Ji holding on to the Brazilian model for next week's HECS?

Breaking news: Lamar Jackson. That is all.

Ravens wit dat 42-10 lead in the 3rd qtr

Temp dropped like a rock again as soon as the sun went down. Down to 33/21.

Hard to believe just over a month ago it was almost 100 degrees.

23 degrees here. Put a water bottle last night outside and it instantly froze when I shook it. Good times.

Temp reading of 29 degrees out next to the nearby farm. Isolated pockets already below freezing..

I mute my TV during commercial breaks. The commercials have gotten so annoying over the past 3 years, that I started muting the breaks most of the time nowadays.

Down to 35/19 already. Looks like we will tank into the mid 20s here.