JakkelWx

Larry Cosgrove's weekend newsletter https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/uuFuRYo6g1o

Firing up the grill for some New York sirloin steaks. I am sipping a DFH 120 min IPA

83/73

There seems to be another line forming W of DC. Maybe a repeat of last night's line of storms here?

Pocket of 3000 J/kg of CAPE just to my north. Outflow boundary showing up on satellite from storms that have fizzled to my south.

Torch!

88/73

Low level lapse rates are around 7.5 - 8 here but the mid level lapse rates are meager.

Already a cumulus field popping over my house today. Last night produced far better than I thought it would. It was premature to call this a bust. Today looks like a flooding and a lightning threat.

Second day of 90+ here, tomorrow looks to be a degree cooler. Hit 92F yesterday and 91F today.

No SVR watch here yet, and there probably won't be. How lame can these threats get??

91F here with a dewpoint of 69F.

Soil moisture is pretty low and has been for the last month.

Lame... line is going to completely miss to the north here. We drought.

Tonight I'm having water on the rocks

sustained -PNA with -NAO.. Big trough in the west is forcing a strong ridge in the central and eastern US. -NAO in summer actually means heat, instead of cold like it does in the winter. Any cold shots are going to be brief before HHH returns. Seven day SST change in the North Atlantic is showing minor warming of the waters, just off the east coast, due to the previous warm up last week. Another, stronger warm-up starting today will likely cause a return of warmer than normal anomalies replacing the cold blob. Most of the coldest anomalies are farther north in Newfoundland and south of Greenland.

Looking like this summer could be another summer where New England gets spared from the HHH, while NYC south roasts. This month especially. Ridge moves east but it doesn't quite reach New England because of persistent troughing over Newfoundland.

today is nearly a carbon copy of yesterday

84/74. We drink the air today.

Mid - upper 80s in the forecast here today with very high dews. Doesn't look as cloudy as I once thought based on satellite for today

ANOTHER AOI and it's only May 28th. Third one. 30/30. Chances are pretty low for development, and if development occurs, it will likely be subtropical in nature. Can you imagine if Cristobal formed right before June 1st, making it the third named pre-season storm? Either way, possibly a grim sign of what's to come during peak hurricane season. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic. 1. A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Some magical force is causing our precious rains to disappear on the models as we get closer. UV index tonight is forecast to be a 0/10. We truly live in dark times nowadays. Edit: just like that, summer shows its true presence after a very brief cooldown.

AMATT All March All The Time, except when it isn't AMATT, its AHATT from late May - early October.

82/75. First really muggy day of the year.