JakkelWx

Monday's storm is continuing to trend stronger, although there has been some noise. This will help draw more cold air in as it becomes our 50/50.

At least the signal for another storm is increasing right before or during the holidays. We miss this one, get crushed by the next?

Sitting right on the 50% probs for 3 inches or greater. Not far from 70%

The CMC is my best friend until it isn't

I'm sure if the bias corrects as we get ever closer that it'll end up as a win-win for everyone. Down here. I-95 and whatever else. That primary is the reason why the 850s/925s are screwed up. Way too much southern flow when there wouldn't be if the primary wasn't there. Strong a*s high overhead means bidness

CMC vs GFS Two things that mess things up down here. 1. The high on the GFS is weaker 2. The primary in the OHV is stronger. What we need to see going forward to dramatically increase significant snow chances further is see the HP in southeast canada correct stronger and the OHV low correct weaker.

It's really the only problem. The euro and the CMC both have a similar strength HP over SE canada and in nearly the same spot. CMC is more tucked in than the GFS but it has lesser of a primary low in the OHV, and not surprisingly its more snow. But look at Feb 2010. Same deal. Something still isn't adding up here.

This won't be our last chance for a snowstorm either. Sometime around the holidays, there could be another window for a storm. It's a loong way out

What's wrong with the GFS is the z500 vort setup. You have another NS that messes up the bowling ball causing it to tilt negative too early and it's rain for us here. The CMC doesn't have this problem. The bowling ball stays intact mostly, and doesn't tilt neutral/neg until in the right spot for us. FWIW the CMC and the GFS are both showing the HP in the upper 1030s, but the GFS weakens the arctic high sooner. The low on the CMC is actually even slightly closer, yet it's almost all snow here and points N and W. Big blizzard. Regardless, I think I'll see a correction colder as we get closer to the event. We aren't out of the woods yet - How strong the secondary low or how far north it is in the OHV will determine Ptype - How the z500 vort streams interact, how they tilt, things to watch are if the UL disturbance tilts negative too early - How stacked the low is, as the CMC would have less southerly flow mucking up the mid levels than the GFS All this will determine how many muthafukkas fall

Not good seeing the models are still looking like this and we're only 120 hours out. I'm starting to get worried about this

I'm hugging the CMC

We have something potential showing up on the LR GEFS ensembles

50/50 low, confluence and a 1030s high and it's still rain somehow. I call BS

That is so close to snow here. A one degree tick colder for the Monday system and that means getting an inch or two of wet paste or all rain.

I'm gonna need a serious shovel for the late week system this'll do Hopefully being a debbie downer on purpose will cause the models to continue trending snowier until i'm under a foot 72 hours out

The cold rain on top of the mild rain will make it harder to shovel

Here's your map Enjoy

That's a huge jump. Has me in the 10% for seeing a foot of snow or greater. Probably doesn't mean much, but it's a start

thank god you're not being serious

The 12z CMC run is the most realistic run for this storm imo

Deep Thunder = biggest weenie model there ever was

@DTWXRISK The 18z GFS seems pretty progressive. Do you think the crappy STJ handling in this model plays a role?

lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice.

It will come out 1 hour ago.

Nobody sees that 50/50 low? That's a crazy 50/50 there.. 958 mb of goodness