JakkelWx

Happy Thanksgiving and may everyone be blessed with endless amounts of deviled eggs. They're da bomb!

I would rather take my chances with that, based on how past storms trended north as we got closer in time. It seems easier for north trends to occur rather than south trends, which we've seen many times! It's reassuring that this El Nino is legit this time, rather than the fake-out that was 2018-19. It's been too long since we've seen a proper El Nino. I was pleasantly surprised at today's ECMWF polar vortex model run, which made the PV even weaker than yesterday's run. Not to mention I was already surprised at that. The MJO seems to want to enter the COD before going into the warmer phases, and the extended euro ensemble wants to gravitate the MJO back towards the colder phases mid month. We will probably see a warmup the first week of December, but even that seems more muted now compared to a couple days ago. Encouraging signs.

What's the temperature in short pump right now?

Wtf

Why is there sounds playing when I open this thread

New burst of lightning in the SE eyewall.

Not an eye. The actual center is still squarely over the island, not just off of the island.

...GRACE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

07L GRACE 210821 0000 20.7N 95.7W ATL 105 967

Grace is really getting her act together on visible and IR satellite.

sigh

what the hell?

These are very impressive lightning bolts coming from this storm and it's still a few miles away. Beautiful anvils.

Usually there are a bunch of towering cumulus that look like they might become storms at 1 PM, only for the entire cumulus field to slowly fall apart by 5 PM. The sun gets progressively more clouded as the anvils from thunderstorms out west inch their way over and the final outcome is a couple lightning bolts, moderate rain and cool clouds to boot. That's at least how it was half the time back on the Delmarva

But aren't you in space?

What is this

dafuq?

Getting that scarier look now.

The hell?? Three invests already?

What about short pump?

Glad I don't still live there

There must be some huge hail in the storm near Hays. Edit: 4 inches. JESUS.

This is just incredibly sad news.

Really strong onshore flow here at the moment. Wind advisory in effect and the wind is gusting to 40 occasionally.