JakkelWx

then UGH.

They're outliers. All the other models are further north.

The euro and ukie are all by themselves. I don't buy their solutions. Maybe if those models were more reliable but they have lost some of their reliability.

Sigh.

Probability maps lol... why the cutoff from west to east?

That was a HUGE difference in track on the GEFS, and a majority of members are tucked in between the OBX and Norfolk. Much more consolidated signal too.

Good fookin lord

CMC crush job

Better jet dynamics, less confluence but the main precip shield misses to the south. There was worse PNA ridging though, change that and move it 100 miles further west and it's game in.

Yall seeing the photos in the NNE cold season thread? Amazing photos. I wanna be there

The sw is coming in more amped on the west coast, on the 12z GFS.

I don't think we should worry too much about suppression, unless this was a month ago. We have shorter wavelengths in late Jan vs December. Anthony said the flow supports a southward bias but I disagree. Edit: I think he is talking about current model runs.

Based on the 6z EPS trend Griteater posted, it looks like the NAO block up north is trending a little further north each time. This combine with better PNA ridging should allow the confluence to trend more relaxed, and further north.

I mean you should probably check his post history.

Well

What a disaster.

2 mb stronger canadian high on the GFS, at 138. There also appears to be less PNA ridging, it's further west again as well but there's more confluence. We'll see what this run holds but it may be south.

GFS another shift north. I am starting to hate this storm.

We need more like it.

Tomorrow is the 5th anniversary of the blizzard of 2016, snowzilla, jonas

When you have a bombing low with a 1040 mb banana high overhead, watch out. If you bring this low another 50 miles north, you open yourself up to very impressive winds. I mean look at this. That is a category 1 hurricane equivalent cyclone. This would mean blizzard conditions closer to the low verbatim. Also, what PSU basically said above, the GEFS's h5 presentation doesn't support suppression. Its OP run is further north, by a good 100 miles or so. I posted a couple pages back a five run trend north with the system on the GFS. The other models have also been showing this. I agree with PSU that this likely won't be some farce north trend like the last two systems. Expect wobbles to continue back and forth until they hone in on a general area of where the LP should go, by 12z Sunday or Monday. I aim to have no more than a 50-100 mile shift in the track between model runs by 12z Sunday. DT said we won't really know fully until after the 25th storm passes, or maybe a little before then. From there we can sweat the details like thermal profile, mesoscale banding, etc.