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A-L-E-K

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Everything posted by A-L-E-K

  1. A-L-E-K
    glad we never settled into another dusty deep freeze and looks like the active (not nec snowy) pattern will pick up soon enough
  2. A-L-E-K
    Gfs trying to flip active and wet in fantasy range, I want to believe obv
  3. A-L-E-K
    guessing i'm done with single digits but wouldn't bet on it obv
  4. A-L-E-K
    zzzzzz
  5. A-L-E-K
    did we even have an 80 degree dew at ord last summer?
  6. A-L-E-K
    ensembles look bad for those pining for early spring maybe it's good to get the cold out of the way now, idk p sick of the nw flow era tbh
  7. A-L-E-K
    it's bad folks
  8. A-L-E-K
    so sick of this
  9. A-L-E-K
    i had a dog a few years back
  10. A-L-E-K
    lol not our year
  11. A-L-E-K
    At least the miller b is dead
  12. A-L-E-K
    the tail doesn't wag the dog, it's all downstream of the ugly h5 look
  13. A-L-E-K
    yup, convection robbing moisture is a weenie talking point. ugly trough, ugly look at 85o = trashy nw side H5 look got close for a second there but backed away and then trended progressively worse...was never gonna get it done
  14. A-L-E-K
    Best part of event now
  15. A-L-E-K
    call looking decent, waa feels good for 2-3 and should manage to find another 1 or 2 somewhere shame about the swing and a miss on another potential event in what has been a rough winter for major synoptic snow storms in the region, when it's not your year, it's not your year
  16. A-L-E-K
    fwiw i'm hedging on the stronger/nw solutions based on the consistent slower/sharper trend with the trough and resulting lee cyclogenesis, surface features vary widely from model to model and run to run but this upper level trend is p consistent running out of time for changes but we're right at the point where small shifts will result in large changes to the cold sector qpf fields
  17. A-L-E-K
    i remember when joe called the mega derecho the night before i'll never forget it
  18. A-L-E-K
    tone more negative than intended, the longshot is getting the closed low major with the jackpot track to work out with this setup which i think is fair, it would be a rare and high end event and it's hard to get too hyped without a good model™ biting either way, most fun setup all winter and it's the closest we've been in a while to a dog even with the low floor
  19. A-L-E-K
    yeah, def skewing more the longshot direction given ensemble looks and nothing on recent short term guidance screams good trends incoming. waa thump looks p locked and loaded for a a couple hours of well timed mood flakes tho (event of the year?) and hoping we can get a slower solution with a ull to our south manages to work out somehow extremely busy day little time for tracking
  20. A-L-E-K
    Blood in the water
  21. A-L-E-K
    Nam going nw
  22. A-L-E-K
    Now riding the hrrr obv
  23. A-L-E-K
    Word Just when u think you got it locked in, bam annie lennox
  24. A-L-E-K
    Extrapolate at your own risk
  25. A-L-E-K
    0z runs of the winter for sure
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