brianc33710

I got caught off guard when I turned on the TWC & they had Thu hi 55, Thu lo 19, Fri hi 37 & Fri lo 24. BMX has 25 Thu nite & 43 Fri. I like that better, even though I'd be happy with 70s all winter long. I miss Tampa Bay.

So they may go Moderate if convection doesn't overwhelm the dynamics & makes these areas "messy."

I think that we probably need to rename this thread from 12-29-21 and 1-1-21 to 12-29-21 and 1-1-22.

I actually installed the Tropical Tidbits app on my phone last spring. I thought I'd have the ability to check out the models on my end but it only shows an invest off of Australia's northeast coast.

I hope you're right. But that Feb 21 freeze was originally forecast to aim further east. I hope you're right & Spann certainly is not forecasting that. But Feb 21 TX freeze caught my attention to say the least.

NO THANK YOU!!! You can have single digit lows where you live but we don't want/need them in AL!

My concerns are for a December 1984-January 1985 type setup this winter. I emailed James Spann about the similarities about 2 weeks ago. He messaged back saying this could be worth watching. Within the last week he posted something about our Dec 84-Jan 85 similarities, I think that was La Niña as well, in response to a complaint "winters aren't cold anymore." He clearly said he didn't predict/guarantee/forecast a Jan 85 killing freeze would happen but said to keep things in mind that we could go from very warm to frigid cold in a matter of weeks. I hope I'm wrong & worried for no reason. In fact I thought things had "warmed" enough so that we wouldn't fall below 5F/-15C ever again. We haven't seen this widespread in Cen AL since Feb 96 & they used to more frequently than now. But TX last February proved that "impossibility" wrong. Yes I remember Christmas & December 1984 were just that warm, not quite as warm as 2021 but still way above average. In fact our 77F/25C today broke the Dec 84 of 75F/24C. Unfortunately January 1985 featured the coldest temps Birmingham had seen since the 1940s. Also, the official Birmingham reporting station in January 1940 recorded a +1F/-17C low but the airport where official readings now originate dropped to -10F/-23C. So while our -6F/-21C temp January 1985 temp was the lowest "official" reading since February 1899, I'll go with the airport -10F/-23C reading from the airport in January 1940 as the better gauge over the records on file.

Heres a video from the main office of FNB Bank in Mayfield 10 Dec 21. Im amazed the recordings survived.

Hahaha! I remember driving down to see a close friend the week before Charley hit! And how everyone fled Tampa Bay which got almost nothing for Orlando that had 105 mph wind gusts. He intensified fast as it took its unexpected last minute right turn.

Yeah Hackelburg-Phil Campbell EF5 was almost 130 mi & maxed 1.25 mi wide.

Admttedly Its Wikipedia, but heres a report from the 27 April 2011 Superoutbreak that looks directly taken from the NWS damage surveys. So this is what 10.5 years ago what each significant tornado was rated & why. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Super_Outbreak#Notable_tornadoes

And this thread is about underrated tornadoes. Obviously there are a ton of people wondering why they rated damage EF4 when there appeared to be EF5 & EF3s that others consider EF4s. Ill stay away from spreading what could be inaccurate info though, but there are plenty of pissed off people out there regarding ratings. Thats for sure, Ill leave this at that.

Wild Ass Guess

This was just a WAG trying to figure out why they seem so reluctant to rate tornadoes an EF5. Most members here, many of them meteorologists, find the damage on par with 27 April 2011s EF5s. Even then though there were EF4s that many experts believed should be EF5s & at least a couple EF3s that some argue were EF4s. As I said, a WAG.....thats all.

Yall may remember the Rainsville tornado on 27 April 2011. The Huntsville NWS had originally given it a high EF4 rating & the video I shared from Jim's Bham NWS that Superoutbreak still shows that. But after further research Hville NWS bumped it up to a "low end" EF5, giving it a max wind speed of > 200 mph, not even 205, just barely over 200.

If they didnt upgrade to high last Friday I doubt theyll do it now. Im sure now in hindsight they know they might shouldve. But, for what its worth, TWCs Torcons max at 5 today, 7-8 last Friday. Also, for what its worth, I found this video of a Jacksonville, IL tornado from 20 February 2014 with snow on the ground. But, the temps there that day did rise to 62F/17C. So while extremely uncommon, what could happen in MN tonight wouldnt be unprecedented. And YouTube has a few videos of "Snoradoes" as well lol. Ill post the link here too.

Would these "underratings" relate to insurance companies and/or aid groups that dole out more aid for 5s than 4s & dont want to give out more money? Im being serious, not a smart ass.....just want to make sure this comment isnt read the wrong way.

Wasn't that just an EF2, albeit 1.6 mi wide?

I know that Jim Stefkovich, Head Meteorologist at the Birmingham, AL NWS at the time of the 27 April 2011 Superoutbreak said something similar to this as it related to the debris balls from that Superoutbreak. I thought he said it in this clip from his presentation to the Alabama EMA about the Superoutbreak but its not quite word for word in this video. But Im almost certain this quote came from Jim as he mentions how those in his office felt when the debris balls appeared. In case the hyperlink doesnt work Ill share it below too. Edit: Im adding part 1/2 here for those who want to watch it. Part 2/2 is the link given above. EDIT TWO: Jim says these exact words in the first 90 seconds of his presentation from that Superoutbreak that August at TEDxTalks Red Mountain. I knew it was Jim I just had to find the right video. Ill leave the top 2 cause some still might want to see them.

Read about the April 1977 Smithfield Tornado just outside of Birmingham, AL. That 1 supposedly almost convinced Fujita to give it a F-6 rating.

Thats decent placement on the SPCs part but maybe they shouldve enlarged moderate N & E and issue a High Risk where the Mod is? TWC had someone from the Paducah NWS going over their damage assessments.

At least so far they havent gone higher than EF3 for anything. I find it hard to believe given some of the damage that nothing has even reached EF4 for 1 or several tornadoes. But yall said theyre stingy going above a 3 so maybe thats as high as we see even if its wrong.

Hopefully things quiet down as they approach Cen. AL. Im going to bed hoping things dont get too crazy in the coming hours. Stay safe out there yall.

SPC expands Slight Risk S & E. 5% Tor added.

The last MOD risk I remember was on a weekend & TWC never left its WKND programming, even with 7 TORCONs. After noon Eastern they were done for the day. This was in the upper Midwest if I remember right.