brianc33710

Yeah I noticed that too.

The local NWS offices issue "Extreme Wind Warnings" for along where the eyewall comes ashore. But the SPC & the NHC separate hurricane winds with severe storm winds. Local NWS offices do as well. They issue Tropical Storm & Hurricane Warnings to address high wind events from Tropical systems. They'll issue tornado warnings but not severe thunderstorm warnings.

But last night the winds were 175-180 at these pressures. That's why I'm asking. Especially when he fell from 905 to 902. Thank you @DDweatherman!

OK officially 902 mb. So why haven't the winds fallen with the pressure tonight? Monday Milton had higher winds & pressures than now. And I sincerely apologize for the wrong info earlier.

That's what I was thinking! I figured Milton had finished the EWRC.

3rd, behind #1 Wilma & #2 Felix. @DDweatherman I tend to think Milton makes 1 more run for 185 mph & sub 900 mb pressure, given the almost perfect intensification conditiconditions he has Tuesday in the loop with no shear. As a bigger & stronger storm, winding down from shear & dry air may take longer. I think 135, a low end Cat 4, is the landfall windspeed, not 125.

Lutz is north of town though.

The SPC Almost issued a day 2 High Risk. This looks serious. @Quincy Wichita appears to be in the bullseye tonight riskwise at least. They are in 15% hatched tornado, 45% hatched wind & 30% hatched hail--the max SPC has assigned--even if Wichita isn't in the middle of the MOD Risk. Overnight/early am we'll probably see a High Risk somewhere in the MOD.

Day Two Moderate Storm Prediction Center May 20, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov)

95/90 wind & 95/80 hail, SPC warned for 75-100 mph winds when they raised to MOD. @Gobucks15 That’s what the SPC fears is happening & why they went with a rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

PDS Severe Tstm Watch in Cen MS. Storm Prediction Center PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293 (noaa.gov)

Well successfully tracking down a tornado that's just a little shit is better than no tornadoes at all lol. I remember 2013 when my apartment overlooked Tampa Bay I got a bunch of great waterspout pictures & videos. But my ex apparently deleted all of them from my Facebook without my permission (& a ton more). I only have 1 background picture that's 1/2 lightning strike & 1/2 waterspout left.

AL was spared a fairly significant severe weather outbreak a few weeks back due to this warm capping. Most of the other ingredients were there for a notable event. Will this hold through the night? A strong storm headed toward San Antonio died before getting there.

So for Day 1 do we have 2 MODS, 1 big MOD, 1 HIGH & 1 MOD, or 2 HIGHS? I'll go with 2 MODS but will fully admit I thought the SPC HIGHS were an overreaction Friday. I wish I had been right.

The tiniest possible corner of NW AL is in the 2/5 now. Literally, if there's a house on the AL/MS/TN front yard is Slight & the house & back yard are Marginal lol.