largetornado

GFS sounding for illinois at 348 hours. not really that note worthy...but the one thing that caught my eye are the lapse rates. sign of things to come?

Rumblings of a multi day severe setup around march 4th starting the the plains with a 991 GL cutter the following day. I have a gut feeling we are in for a nasty severe wx season.

Southern portion of the subforum is looking at a significant Winter storm tuesday into wednesday. NWS Louisville already has posted winter storm watches for 4+ inches. Models are consistent on a heavy band of 6-10" snow totals along the I71 corridor or just south. I anticipate this will trend a little bit more towards the north but we will see.

Had about 9" in cincy. 1/2" of sleet/freezing rain in between two 4-5" layers light and fluffy snow. Without the ice, easily a foot plus storm.

HRRR snow fall. Lol and the storm isnt even over in this run.

Can anyone explain why the foreign models (EURO, GPDS, UKMET) have the heaviest snow band south of the ohio river whereas the American models have the heaviest snow band tracking near i70?

That hotspot will pull Milton North. $50 says landfall is 2 Miles NW Tampa Bay.

Update to my last post…it was not a storm chaser killed near Corning. Death toll appears to be 4 in greenfield and 1 north of corning

Preliminary reports indicating a storm chaser was among the fatalaties

Yesterday had more tor reports than Monday

Rap sounding from northwest Ohio. What prevented a mode significant tornado?

I really think they need an office for the northern plains, central plains, Midwest, and Dixie. All have those areas have their nuances with tornado forecasting

Did damage west of oakwood.

The daytime portion definitely busted. The nighttime portion still has time but we will see. Ohio warm fronts are bad news.

TDAY is down until further notice. Anyone chasing in that area will be critical to the early warning process as the lowest WSD88 beam is 5-7k ft in parts of Ohio.

Slight risk for D2. Little surprising

well thats a concerning development. NAM is starting to show a secondary low over illinois.

I definitely got ahead of myself. Runs today have significantly downtrended the northern end of the threat.

https://x.com/ryanwx_/status/1786761871485219061?s=46 Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look impressive With a decent EML advecting in, morning convection shouldn’t really pose that much of an issue. Per the nam, fairly discrete storms could be expected

Tuesday is now coming into range of the nam. Looks like a stout MCS forms in the evening on Monday and rapidly moves east. Based on trends, I expect illinois to be rain free by 15z Tuesday. Also seems like a faster solution is more likely pushing the threat further east on Tuesday. 18z euro is a little bit more amplified and a little slower.

So there has been a consistent signal of severe weather for various portions of the subforum next week. Right now, Wednesday looks to be the day but Monday-thursday all show some potential. With multiple waves, it is going to be a complicated week. The only thing that we know at this point is that there will be more the sufficient upper level flow over a very favorable parameter space. Selected sounding is from west central ohio on wednesday. If this thread is premature, feel free to delete it.

Surface winds look fairly backed. Care to post a sounding or two from the euro?

Next wednesday, 5/8 is worth keeping an eye. GFS is spitting out PDS soundings with limited precip in the morning. With an EML present at 15z and 850 temps remaining around 15-16c, storms would be fairly discrete. A little shortwave over Indy and plenty of forcing, could be a big day. The winds are a little more veered than i would like to see but with WSW flow at 500 mb, there is still some good directional shear present.

There is a dry slot right out in front of these storms. Wonder how much that plays into it. Nothing to the east or south of existing storms has been able to sustain