largetornado

That hotspot will pull Milton North. $50 says landfall is 2 Miles NW Tampa Bay.

Update to my last post…it was not a storm chaser killed near Corning. Death toll appears to be 4 in greenfield and 1 north of corning

Preliminary reports indicating a storm chaser was among the fatalaties

Yesterday had more tor reports than Monday

Rap sounding from northwest Ohio. What prevented a mode significant tornado?

I really think they need an office for the northern plains, central plains, Midwest, and Dixie. All have those areas have their nuances with tornado forecasting

Did damage west of oakwood.

The daytime portion definitely busted. The nighttime portion still has time but we will see. Ohio warm fronts are bad news.

TDAY is down until further notice. Anyone chasing in that area will be critical to the early warning process as the lowest WSD88 beam is 5-7k ft in parts of Ohio.

Slight risk for D2. Little surprising

well thats a concerning development. NAM is starting to show a secondary low over illinois.

I definitely got ahead of myself. Runs today have significantly downtrended the northern end of the threat.

https://x.com/ryanwx_/status/1786761871485219061?s=46 Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look impressive With a decent EML advecting in, morning convection shouldn’t really pose that much of an issue. Per the nam, fairly discrete storms could be expected

Tuesday is now coming into range of the nam. Looks like a stout MCS forms in the evening on Monday and rapidly moves east. Based on trends, I expect illinois to be rain free by 15z Tuesday. Also seems like a faster solution is more likely pushing the threat further east on Tuesday. 18z euro is a little bit more amplified and a little slower.

So there has been a consistent signal of severe weather for various portions of the subforum next week. Right now, Wednesday looks to be the day but Monday-thursday all show some potential. With multiple waves, it is going to be a complicated week. The only thing that we know at this point is that there will be more the sufficient upper level flow over a very favorable parameter space. Selected sounding is from west central ohio on wednesday. If this thread is premature, feel free to delete it.