Pilotwx

on Sat it looks like back edge looks stationary, and moisture transport out of gulf is still going strong and building .

Looks like storm maybe slowing down, if so it may give the western edge a chance for more snow . Also lots of back building long LA coast

Day 3 runs are when the models start to latch on. Models almost always lose a storm day 4 or 5. My area is probably out on this one no matter and has been since first being shown, so hang tight tomorrow evening storm should be back for area South and East of N Foothills

Might be sitting this one out in N, Foothills. Hope that someone gets their dream storm.

Well Cold Air is out running moisture

Yep, rather be where we are right now. As most who have been here for years know there usually is a NW trend. Probably start sniffing it out day 3 or late day runs on day 4. Also you can rest up as you dont have to worry about how much, at this point your thinking a dusting is a win

Its snowing very small flakes here, Models are showing 4-6 here, but moisture may dry up before it gets to the Northern foothills

Could be convective feedback problems with T'storms and heavy rains to the south so this would cut number down farther North . If RAP has no convective feedback issues I could see why NW NC , Northern NC into much of VA numbers have increase. This maybe what the RAP is seeing .

The foothills are feast or famine in the last few years with moisture of any type.

This typical time range models lose winter storms. Lets see if by Thursday/Friday models come back to storm idea. Models don't look as promising as they did over the weekend. Long range cold and snow warm and rain are always a flip of the coin when forecasting a pattern change

Need the Low to get going over the central gulf of Mexico for this to be a big snow maker, especially back to the West.

Every model just about for 2 weeks has had a min. or completely dry over the NW piedmont and N foothills counties , Stokes, NW Forsyth, Yadkin, Surry. It seems to be trend for awhile, most of the time it has been right. Hence one of the reason Pilot Mountain fire grew so quick

12Z tomorrow run we will either see the people to the East cleaning the Grocery stores out, or people in the West topping off their Groceries.

? now is NAM short range right, more west? Or is Euro right, more East Long range Model?

Spread RPO , yet running a buck sweep