Ian
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Everything posted by Ian
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Yeah may be worth some more examination. I did this a while back too.. obv doesn't include this Dec. Here's NYC:
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This month yo
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I pulled a few years for DCA but none were that high. May look again later.
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Yeah that looks right.. 11.9 per ACIS.
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Today's 12z plug in for DC: Euro: 51.9 GFS: 51.0 +11 to +12 month? lol.
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Also on track to finish in top 10 warmest years at DC.. tho not sure how we handle the sensor question on that one.
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Was about to say NWS forecast is 63 now Christmas Eve morning. GFS/Euro suggest it's above that thru midnight. Even possible we get it two days in a row if Euro is right.
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Yeah I think it's pretty much a lock though I haven't run 'cold' numbers to see what we'd need to miss it.
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Jebus look at these MOS numbers for Thurs. 38 degrees above normal at BWI.
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New GFS MEX has 61/76 at DCA Thurs heh. 30+ across the board for the area basically.
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Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded.
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I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now. Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though.
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Per 12z GFS 12/19 plug in DC finishes 49.6 or 4 degrees above prior Dec record.
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el bumpo
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Ha nice. I actually rounded down a bit to use whole numbers. I mean who knows anyway but we've got a very good shot I think.
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For fun I plugged in GFS numbers + climo on the 31st ... ~48 for DC. Would beat Dec record by about 2.4 degrees.
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Another record high for BWI. Dulles just shy. 70 at both spots for 1p.
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Last nights gFS MOS had 3 days 68+ for DC in a row. Haven't seen that so late before during modern records if it happens.
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44.4 or greater for a top 10 Dec in DC. Might put up some +15-20s this stretch if something doesn't bust it.
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DC should still get #6 warmest.. glanced wrong before and thought #7.
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DC should crack top 10 warmest Nov without problem. Looks like it should be #7 if things go half to plan.
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The persistence of the heat is starting to become interesting (well, warmest May was interesting)... not sure how long it can sustain but it's done a good job since May at least. We were due to kick the blue bubble too. Given ensembles seems we should be in running with the high spots for 90+ in DC at the end of June. Keep that rolling into July and even a cool Aug doesn't do a ton except keep you out of 2010 territory.
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DC tied for 3rd on 90-degree day count as of today with 12. 2010 also had 12.. 1991 lead with 16.
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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
Ian replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
Could be a good stretch up ahead with a few days off maybe. Gfs seems to like more than euro but euro is close. Been waiting for that 1995 redux after we leave. -
Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
Ian replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
I'm mixed on the pattern. The jet channel stays more or less across the plains... Just quite weak on some runs. I dunno.. Seems like there should be little impulses riding along it at the least. We'll see I suppose. We're coming to visit you Brett if down days so hope for storms. ;p