Ian

prob 96 given prior obs... some sun moved through

I only looked at max temps and heat index... heat mode. It did warm fast late yesterday and the air mass is legit but it'd be impressive given it's still rather cloudy here.

they do smooth it but the process isn't entirely transparent from what I've been able to gather

100 is harder than it seems. Clouds gonna make it tough again.

climo is already pretty warm compared to historical values. we'll get new normals once this year is done... I think they start to trickle out in spring or so been a while. I am curious if DC will get 90s for a portion of days. I could see it not.

I was skeptical of the rises shown in climate modeling for 90/95 deg days but these days I'm not quite as skeptical.

They're all Jul 2011 and also the max of all months. 23 in Aug 2016 as well. We torch well.

not a ton but prob fairly close to climo. more than 0z. I do think by early Augish we will see the ridge shift west a bit.. has been advertised on weeklies and a bit on ensembles of late. how much of a shift is tbd... this pattern has been like a rock

huh might be worth a peek. have been checking here and there to date... currently t-5. 2011 was 19th still! I did make this super graphic

Euro ensembles have 14 more days of 90+. 41 by Aug 2 would be solid.

Some station right near me is 103. Hugging engaged.

5 in a row now with dropping dews. gotta at least be 99. impressive for a late day surge after clouds.

ahh yes good point.

meanwhile BWI was 92 last ob.. not odd.

it does still seem to be an outlier... does hot air filter there from the city?

hmm yeah. I dunno. On a north wind it might make more sense but it is an outlier on dew more than temp. I don't know the local topo enough tbh.

BWI does indeed have some support so it might just be the dew point is broken. I doubt its dew is right looking at other obs.

dew point suspiciously low there.. college park also low but not a manned station

BWI 99... back to its old torchy self

already some nice bubblies on this boundary nearby. one is rather fat just to my outheast. much "cleaner" sky just north. meanwhile way too many clouds locally for 100 today overall, altho bwi was off to the races so who knows.

Some upper 70s dews near the bay. Heat indexes.. bay bridge 93/79 for 110.

yeah it was a particularly weird case. but overall there seems to be hesitancy until there is very strong agreement of reaching.

I'll drop this here. Targets of sorts.

There has to be a reason this happens so much in and around the city? LWX cautious in the face of 102-104 heat indexes on the models (ok, GFS might have been nearer 100)... then the short term models strongly affirm and they go ahead with it overnight. Not going to overblow the messaging angle because I think most have been advertising today and tomorrow being ugly for a while. But it's still kinda weird. When issuing svr in theory you don't always wait until the svr is happening because you know it's inbound based on expertise. But with heat index forecasts it again seems all dotted i and crossed t before going there.

Summertime NAM'ing