Holston_River_Rambler

NAM may be coming in icier. Last 5 SREF runs of probs of ZR greater than 0.05 in 3hrs:

If the Euro is off by several degrees, looks rough for even the plateau: 18z Euro:

Annnddddd at our hour of dire need, the GFS v16 has returned: a gif of all three systems we've been talking about, since it has been so long since we've had access to its data.

Yet another one of the options on the table for next week's system:

EPS member 42 FTW this afternoon:

You can almost see the arctic front on visible satellite: Watch for the clouds that seem to be unmoving, that's almost exactly where the front is according to temps on wunderground.

I'll add to John's post, for the TN people: Look how close the ice gets to the edge of the plateau, but not quite there to the south. Will be interesting to see if it actually pushes just a bit farther and hits the plateau.

12z Euro for ice event one. I don't have access to a total ZR panel, so I tried to make the gif go slow enough that a person could add it up for their location:

RGEM for interested parties:

6z Euro for interested parties: probably good to keep in mind, as was posted yesterday, Euro has been underestimating the surface cold push with the front

@Stovepipe, NE getting in on some Dandrigde Dollop GFS action\.

Looks like icepocalypse (ok maybe an exaggeration) over middle and east TN, with snow west. Energy goes negative too early that run. But if it is playing games in the southwest, that could evolve better over time.

You can also see how far south the boundary has made it into the Gulf on that run. That would seem to encourage a low to form pretty far south.

There almost a wall of snow from Canada to the Rio Grande on one frame of this: wow

I just hope it doesn't lift north as the vort kicks out. But it looks like the Pac jet is blasting at the Pac NW and that, along with the departing TPV as a 50/50, could help keep it from gaining latitude. I bet we end up with a massive Miller B, (this run) but we will see.

A lot of energy in the SW and a big old HP, the drama, the drama of it all:

Gonna be fun to watch what happens with the pieces of energy over CA and the Baja:

Hits KY pretty hard with ZR:

Euro has ticked south again with the cold: 850 temps last 3 runs:

The one thing that takes a bit to get used to in looking at those, is that the dashed black lines go up at and angle, so that the temp in at 650 is maybe -5c: (Sorry I picked a slightly different sounding for this image)

Euro is rolling.

Aaaaannnnd I probably spent waayyy too much time on that. Looks like it was answered while I was typing, lol.

We just would have to hope for a deeper press of cold. All the precip starts as snow, but melts as it hits a warm nose. 3 different soundings from the 12z GFS at this frame: one approx at Knoxville, one approx. at Carthage, one at approx. Union City: Each has the characteristic warm nose. (The red line that kind of looks like a person's nose). In the first one (around Knoxville) the nose spends a lot of time above the 0 Celsius line. So the precip begins as snow (the green and the red lines, temp and dewpoint respectively) meet all the way up to around 350 mb (scale on the left side). That means the atmosphere is moist that high up. The little bars on that left side represent forcing and the dashed, bracketed area labelled DGZ is te zone where dendrites (snowflakes) can grow. If there is moisture in that, you have snow. But it falls through the area where the temp is above 0 celsius (32 Farenheit) and so it melts. But notice the temp drops down to 28 at the surface, so you get rain that freezes on contact, no bueno IMO. The second has the same problem, but the are of above freezing is much small, so you get maybe a mix. Some snow flakes might survive, but those that melt re freeze as theyt fall through nearly 5000' of sub freezing air, so you get sleet. Last one is the easiest. Starts as snow and never gets above freezing. You may know some of this already, but wasn't sure based on your questions so apologies if it is too much. We want deeper cold so the snow doesn't have a chance to melt. The High being over the Great Lakes might help some as it would shift everything more east. But nothing is really showing anything like that for now, at least for the window I picked above. That high is sliding down the front range of the Canadian Rockies and will likely move in from the NW. Just a question of how far it makes it.

Snowfall satellite before more clouds move in this AM: