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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another thing to consider, that I've been kicking around in my mind, is the Momentum that's being added to the Polar regions right now (see: Does that aded momentum help push the energy that causes the storm east more quickly (forces it further south and east in its ultimate evolution?), or is the that momentum added too far north to do anything except for the big TPV?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like Miller B on the second one too, at least on this run:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Look at how the HP breaks as the storm attacks: What's to say the high wouldn't break the other way and the storm run up the coast? Sure there's no 50/50 to lock the HP in, but we've seen bigger shifts at 5 days out this winter.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stole this from southern wx. Run to run temp change on the Euro:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the next one is going to be a hit for someone in the area (hedges bets and hides)
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    The next piece of energy is going to have a better chance on this run, if it can amplify.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the evolution in terms of precip:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's what we end up with: the main energy just runs too far north:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean, this looks like it should end well...
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Normally you would think this was a good look, lol:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just always wanted to post that, lol.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is the biggest Euro run of the millennium....
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same for me, but since 1996. Just bad luck in the places I've lived in E TN. I can't complain too much though, since I've occasionally lucked out in some of these marginal setups. UKMET looks like it should be interesting once it finishes running. Pivotal ends the 12z run with this 6 hour total snowfall image at hr 144: My version goes out to hr168.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Never tried the "anticipate the NAM" trick with SREF for an icing situation and even for snow, it only works like 75% of the time, at least it seems that way to me.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM may be coming in icier. Last 5 SREF runs of probs of ZR greater than 0.05 in 3hrs:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    If the Euro is off by several degrees, looks rough for even the plateau: 18z Euro:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Annnddddd at our hour of dire need, the GFS v16 has returned: a gif of all three systems we've been talking about, since it has been so long since we've had access to its data.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yet another one of the options on the table for next week's system:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 42 FTW this afternoon:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can almost see the arctic front on visible satellite: Watch for the clouds that seem to be unmoving, that's almost exactly where the front is according to temps on wunderground.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add to John's post, for the TN people: Look how close the ice gets to the edge of the plateau, but not quite there to the south. Will be interesting to see if it actually pushes just a bit farther and hits the plateau.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro for ice event one. I don't have access to a total ZR panel, so I tried to make the gif go slow enough that a person could add it up for their location:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM for interested parties:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro for interested parties: probably good to keep in mind, as was posted yesterday, Euro has been underestimating the surface cold push with the front
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Stovepipe, NE getting in on some Dandrigde Dollop GFS action\.
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