Holston_River_Rambler

Even the Euro is a little closer to rounding the Apps with the surface low:

Memphis and Tobie ought to like the UKMET precip maps for Tuesday. And @Carvers Gap it could have some shades of the CMC's evolution.

Even if a lot of this is sleet, I'll take it, lol: We'll see what the precip type amounts look like once they are available on F5wx. Look at that blue dollop over @PowellVolz !!!

Here ya go:

If you liked that gray, you'll surely like the National Blend of Models:

Now Tellicowx may say that this includes sleet and he is right, but let's just enjoy the pretty colors for now.

Actually we won't look past next Thursday for now:

I think Middle and west TN folks will like the para GFS 16. Will post once its out through next week.

No, I really meant y'all should pick whether we rename or start a new one.

And it is probably fair that the people impacted (y'all) get to pick.

Overnight Ukie is just redonkulous: If that happens, @AMZ8990 and @Tobiewx will be in for it, lol

6z Euro for middle and western areas:

0z Euro pulls the boundary through after the early week storm and the next system is able to hit a bit further east: It may not happen that way, but that is at least a reasonable evolution of the pattern that could help eastern areas. All other modeling has that system too far west for eastern areas, but the CMC does have a second wave ride the front of teh second system, so some hints taht it sees that evolution as possible. EPS members see some possibilities there: Again I like that window because it seems a reasonable way that this pattern could hit areas east of BNA. But I've also noticed (and others have mentioned that they've noticed it as well) that these ensemble members seem to follow the OP, at least if you are looking for an individual system. The dispersion is probably good for seeing the pattern's evolution out in time, but I'm not sure it is so great for a specific system. Here's an interesting way to visualize that: This is a gif of the 24 hr snowfall at Crossville as the 50 EPS members see it, for the past 7 runs. At first they saw a distinct window centered on the 17th, but over time, that window shifts to the 19th. This seems to follow how far the Euro has seen the boundary making it. I just can't decide if it is a legitimate window, or will the EPS push it back yet again?

I think we're at the point where all the water is releasing its latent heat, at my house. 32 and drippy here in Mossy Grove with a brisk NNW wind.

34.7 and moderate rain here in Morgan County

"If you plan for the worst, no surprises are unpleasant." --Robert Jordan, The Shadow Rising

Down to 35 here in Morgan county.

Hopefully we can get a rumble or two of thunder.

Might could be

18z Euro for western TN/ MS/ KY/ AR peeps:

18z RGEM sticking to it's cold and wintry guns:

Spring is on its way: Key:

Almost no hits from Jackson to BNA as far as I can tell on 0z Here are the two means: 0z 12z

EPS snow members for the early next week storm:

Hopefully whatever that Super Nino did to the atmosphere has run its course now. This gradient TN pattern is what I've always heard associated with Ninas and it seems we finally have one.