Holston_River_Rambler

NAM coming in warmer for eastern areas. Not sure if I'm happy about (since it does away with ice) or sad, since it could mean the east trend has ended.

Honestly I know so little about your microclimates there, I'm not sure. It looks like y'all are right on the Mississippi, and I know that being that close to a river can occasionally cause issues with surface temps here in the TN valley. That being said the 6z NAM and RGEM and obviously the 6z Euro put you just on the N. side of the mix/ freezing rain line, which should max out accums overhead. That's a stout warm nose on the NAM though and ant variation of that layer of above freezing air could change the precip quickly for you: the RGEM has a humongo DGZ, but still has a warm nose, though not enough to get freezing rain: Honestly, if I were making a forecast, I would do what they are doing there. Most of us on these boards want the max accumulation and to see big snowflakes. That's the bottom line for us. Professional forecasters though are more concerned with communicating hazards and impacts to individuals in their communities, so going with a Winter Storm Watch, and a mixed bag, given current model output is probably a good bet. Freezing rain and sleet can be more impactful for travel than snow, so erring on the side of "worst case scenario" (i.e. major ice storm, is probably the way to go. That way if it does turn out to be more snowfall, they can adjust and people are still aware. TBH even a glaze of ice on roads is worse than 6 - 8" of snow, IMO, so the more people you can keep off the roads during the event, the better. Another consideration, is that you are on the N. fringe of the Jackson, MS NWS area. I know John has noticed that sometimes plateau fringe areas here don't seem to get as much attention, but in our case that could be a decision based on population and Greenville MS looks like a decently sized town. I just don't know how that works out usually down there. Sometimes you can see a glaring difference between forecast offices by looking at the NWS NDFD snow maps, but in this case, the area between Jackson and Memphis looks pretty smooth, no big jumps as you go from one NWS area to another: 6z NWS NMB (National Model Blend, which I think a NWS met mentioned on twitter still uses an old version of the Euro) looks similar: If it were me, and I were forecasting I'd say the following: 3-6 snow, additional ice and sleet. Bottom line, travel will become hazardous and life threatening for you and other people on the road, don't go out unless you have to and monitor the latest conditions.

6z Euro:

The Euro OP seems to be wanting to sharpen and dig the energy more, over the N Gulf. I tried to make a gif, but t is hard to get the time stamps synced because teh 6z/18z have different set of hours than the 0/12z runs. Here's an example though: More open, neutrally tilted wave: deeper, sharper, negatively tilted wave: the deeper that digs and the more negatively it can tilt, especially if it does it right along the MS river, the better for us all.

Just from the perspective of "how do numerical forecast model services depict precip" perspective, it is interesting to see the diff. between the RGEM on TT and the RGEM on pivotal Hour 63: Here's the RGEM sounding that Pivotal gives over my general area for that time:

6z GEFS:

0z EPS members. Some of them seem to have crept east a bit since 12z yesterday:

Overnight Euro OP for western areas. I know Jax already shared teh specifics, but notice the "Max" number on the image. How manyt times will you see that number at hour 120 over the SE (and not the Apps?)

Overnight Ukie takes the early week system's surface LP east of the Apps : Then the systems keep on coming.

Got some freezing drizzle up here in Morgan County, and maybe a very melted snow flake or two mixed in.

Some of the SREF plumes in about an hour, should be fun out towards Memphis:

Look at the watches and warnings for this one, lol:

18z Euro: The energy looked rather RGEMish to me, if a tad west.

18z RGEM keeps a week surface low entirely east of the Apps, and runs it up through the midlands of SC and NC:

I think you'll like the 18z GEFS members I just posted in the other thread, lol, if you are in Franklin.

I'll go ahead and say that most EPS members (at least as they depict snowfall), are a much more west, but n=maybe we can apply rule #5 here: Euro tends to hold energy back.

Sorry, I should probably keep the info for the early week system in this thread. That being said, check out the 18z GEFS members

Ole Ragl'r 18z GFS actually keeps the LP east of the Apps.

18z Para getting a little closer to with and Apps runner or keeping the LP east of the Apps: such a good looking HP, and holding its own instead of skidootchling east.

Man its 33 and change here at the edge of the plateau. As is the custom, fog has built in over the last couple of hours as some WAA tries to set up.

Euro is going for a wave riding the front scenario as the trough digs and sharpens: doesn't generate a lot of precip this run, but if there's one thing we've had luck with the past couple of winters, it's that scenario.

Barely breaks the 0 degree celsius line:

Euro box sounding around BNA while the mixed bag of precip is moving through:

THIS IS THE WAY