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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM 3km has some ideal gusts for 1/3" of ice accretion on the plateau !!:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Morgan county has almost a 10 degree difference from NW -> SE:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Baseline for later obs: Not much difference between East TN and CAD areas this AM
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    HRRR really showing very specific areas of downsloping in NE TN this afternoon:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry about that, but I was pretty confident you'd have until noon and I still don't think we see bad roads (other than usual East TN drivers) until after 12, but better safe than sorry.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can actually see the lift associated with the right entrance region of the mid level jet the SPC talks about in the satellite overnight: mid level jet: Watch this area:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    SPC has given us a mesoscale disco: Mesoscale Discussion 0041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Western and Middle Tennessee...Far Northern Alabama...Far Northern Mississippi Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 241154Z - 241800Z SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation is expected this morning from the Mid-South northeastward into Tennessee and southern Kentucky, where snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this morning. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery across the southeastern U.S. shows a large area of precipitation from Arkansas extending eastward to the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is being supported by strong lift associated with the right entrance region of an expansive mid-level jet, and by ascent due to a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The nose of the low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley this morning, contributing to the maintenance of widespread precipitation. RAP forecast soundings across the region have a warm nose from 900 to 700 mb, where temperatures are forecast to gradually warm to near 0 C after daybreak this morning. This will result in a wintry mix of precipitation. Snow may continue in parts of southern Kentucky through midday. However, further south into western and middle Tennessee, a transition to sleet and freezing rain will be likely. In far northern Mississippi and far northern Alabama, the predominant precipitation type will be freezing rain. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly not sure.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    From the AFD: "Our hazards issued and latest WSSI from WPC depict this thinking pretty well with lesser winter storm impacts nearly east of the I-75 to 40 to I-81 corridor. A portion of this area doesn`t meet minor impacts, even." Here is the WSSI they mention from the WPC:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX updated their ice accretion forecast about an hour ago:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice dendrite in the pre dawn hours: The actual Baja low hasn't made landfall on Baja quite yet:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sleet and snow here in MoCo too.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    @tnwxwatcher I would not be surprised if precip. starts quite a bit earlier than most models were showing last night based on the obs. above. I still think noon is a good call for travel getting worse, but if possible, I'd try to finish up those deliveries in Sevier county in as safe and an expeditious way as possible.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just a quick reminder, I made an obs thread now that we are getting precip. You may also post there if you wish. I am not a moderator and would not tell anyone what to do, but I do now some folks like to read the straight up obs. in the long hot summer months.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow, I was about to say I bet a lot is virga based on the hole around OHX radar:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO if you can get all that done before noon you will be fine, of course no idea what Sevier county traffic will be like.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Now to be totally fair, the HP has weakened some (based on SPC mesoanalysis) since contentwx posted the above:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Might as well throw of Cranky/ contentwxguy out against the wall too, and see if anything sticks: Since he originally posted a gif, here is one showing the wavebreak he drew in
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the trend centered on 0z this evening, def slower moving out of TX. Heights have also been creeping south out that way.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    One other thing to consider especially north of I-40. When the transition happens, there is usually an area with humongo snowflakes (fatties, as it were) just on the leading edge of that warm nose.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Best guess I have is that the HP is bullying the system a bit. The real challenge to the HP comes when the Baja low fully ejects and starts to interact with the n. stream shortwave dropping in now through NW Canada. I guess we could look at the confluence over the NE to see if that has trended stronger? There is a touch more confluence on the RGEM over NE and I do mean just a touch. Most of the early precip. on the first wave is driven by frotogenesis, isentropic upglide (presumably not unrelated), and jet dynamics over the upper OH Valley. LLJ doesn't really hit TN until after 3 tomorrow (eastern time), So I guess there is some scenario where this first wave overperforms wrt frozen as opposed to freezing for favored areas. But I don't see much of a window outside of TN and VA/KY border counties (eastern areas only here since out west TN it is a different story) past maybe dark tomorrow when that LLJ gets cranking.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am wrong to say the RGEM is usually a colder (biased) model? It just surprises me that it has continuously ticked S. Is it slower, colder, south? All of the above? Don't get me wrong, I'm don't see su dodging the ice bullet completely, but it does look like the HP is bullying things a bit.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here you go: Good tropical connection and you can see the shortwave that shall not be named dropping in over Alberta:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    wow. If y'all haven't had the front pass by in East TN yet, get ready. That N/NW wind has a bite.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is what I was looking at when I made the south call:
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