Holston_River_Rambler

On a positive note at least for me after my Banter post, that there seem to be some hints at the possibility of a front end WAA thump for the late weeks system, but that of course could evaporate in time.

33 in southern MoCo.

Pretty healthy dynamics with this system and temps seem to be verifying colder up to go time in places (see Memphis starting their WSWarning early). Maybe this could be a situation where rates actually do overcome if you get under the right dynamic band and the fatties get rippified.

Here's the UKMET sounding for the same time Monday (18z): I don't really see that as a freezing drizzle sounding. DGZ is saturated and barely any warm nose getting above 0 celsius. To me that would be a snow/ sleet sounding.

I should add that I included the late week system on that gif too, so I wouldn't have to make two.

Ukie:

12z Euro: sounding just south of Nashville for @jaxjagman

12z GEFS:

@Blue MoonWell, I'd wait and see what 12z does. That will have some RAOB data in it. I know some mets make fun of waiting for that data, but apparently it can have an impact, as we saw in the last storm. We even saw yesterday that Mark J from NWS Louisville was favoring the 0/12z suites. All that being said, it could be legit. swinging back NW a bit.

About over it at this point. Glad for the often shafted western areas, but for MBY, this winter has been a little bit of a disappointment. We finally had the fabled -NAO, during one of the best climo times for us and, even at some elevation on the plateau, I was dealing with mixing and boundary layer issues. It seems to help the pattern, but it needs arctic air to redirect our way. An example of how important the Pacific pattern is. Yeah the NAO kept us from being too warm, but I would prefer an occasional torch at this point that to the marginal BS we've had. It's been so cloudy. I miss the sun and the stars. I think I would trade every event up to this point, to be in the bullseye for this upcoming storm. Like tnweathernut, these marginal, nickle and dime events are getting old to me. I want a real winter storm. But it seems like I back into one marginal event a year, that falls out in my favor. Will the AMO change things up in the next decade? Does ENSO even matter any more? Like I posted above, we've had the same pattern problems in FEB with every ENSO state. It def, does seem like the SSW had an impact, but to be honest, I'm not sure there's much point in chasing them, other than to note that 3 - 4 weeks after one, we could see more blocking, if the base state is receptive. Do we need a Bond or Heinrich Event at this point? Like Old Ed Rupp used to say on WBIR, "Come on, Spring!"

6z Euro. jogged a bit west:

Overnight UKMET:

SREF H5 and vorticity trend for the past 6 runs: Looks deeper for 0z than any of the past 6. Will this mean a deeper dig for the energy on the NAM? Colder for eastern areas? It seems to work only 75% of the time. We'll know in about an hour.

18z EPS members Just for the pure weenage of it, the 18z EPS mean through 144 hours:

18z Euro:

Several of the 18z GEFS members are coming in a wee bit (and I don't mean that sarcastically) east of the OP:

For anyone wondering who Mark J is, he is a forecaster at NWS Louisville who sometimes writes parts of their AFDs

The Australian forecast model looks good through the next 168 hours

I think its pretty close to the eastern edge of the plateau. Temp dropped from 43 to 36 as I drove from Oak Ridge to Mossy Grove (just south of Wartburg).

I might faint: " The sleet could be heavy at times. " from my point and click forecast for Monday night. I've haven't seen "heavy at times" for anything other than rain in like 20 years...I think.

Man, what a jet buckling. A baroclinic leaf, with someone in TN in a perfect areas for ye olden fatties:

Hard not to like the 18z RGEM sounding over central MS, upstream of the plateau: Look at that forcing in the DGZ.

Well, y'all know I'm a sucker for the Ukie, so here is the extended 12z: Lawd have mercy for Middle and west TN: keep in mind that snow map is through hr 168.

I've not missed 3 pages of discussion on here in like 5 months, lol. I'm just gonna wait for the 18z Euro and pretend no other runs happened.

Anything exciting happen while I was in Knoxville today?