Holston_River_Rambler

WAA fog rolling in here on the edge of the plateau:

Thunder getting closer. We've got to get that IMBY for snow later in the week, so says yoda dog

EPS through hr 90:

I think there's more wiggle room with this one. No clue how it turns out, but prefer to have the unknowns of those two N Stream vorts rushing in than the giant TPV gyre pulling everything N and W.

12z Euro: 0z Euro @Carvers Gap

T-storms showing up in N. Alabama, heading towards the western plateau,:

I'm really interested to see how the N stream shortwaves interact with this system. That TPV has blocked that kind of interaction off for our current system.

Evolution at H5; Several pieces of energy flying around, so time for more positive or negative changes.

Pivotal's version of events:

Snowfall through hr 90:

12z Euro has snow through I-40 across all of TN between 8PM and 2 AM Wed- Thurs.:

Looks like @AMZ8990 is about to get the right front quadrant of the 850 low, lol: next image is 850 winds and 850 frontogenesis

About half the 12z GEFS members have a front end thump for TYS - TRI, as well as the control.

I'd say so!

para GFS for the late week system:

Are you ok @AMZ8990: LOL

6z Euro has the thump:

One thing I really like about this Thursday- Friday system (besides the fact that the cursèd TPV is gone), is that we will be in the "Frickin' Floodin' February" Pattern from the past couople of years, but with actual, real, arctic cold, somewhere in the forum area. : Right entrance region of a jet streak, FTW. I picked the non-precip type image, just to show the intensity. Remember the firehose aimed at parts of the eastern TN valley the past couple of Febs? Imagine that, but with snow.

As you can tell, it's already happened to me.

Looks like quite a bit of WAA on the NAM: With no precip: Just gonna say that it is probably underestimating the WAA precip Something else to consider: That is a left over piece of energy that could ride the front as it get pushed east by the Thurs-Fri storm. It's still digging and it has some friends to the north that could help it out, now that the TPV of Doom is retreating. Up through now, any N - S interaction has been squished by the TPV, but since it is on its way out, that opens the door for more changes in the next couple of days. If you run the CMC out past hr 84, you can see that energy interact with a N. stream piece and for a storm off the outer banks: I think that since the TPV is still cranking over the Great Lakes, it is still impacting everything that happens afterwards. It should finally (thank God) be rolling out by Wed. evening and I bet there will be more changes, for better or worse, until go time with the late week system and whatever might follow up over the weekend, before we get to the Cosgrove Relaxation Period (like the Medieval Warm Period, but more Cosgrovish and recent) that Carver mentioned.

Who's ready to get sucked in for round 2??? 0z EPS has 5 members that look anything like the above.

Yuck:

My guess on the rime ice would be what y'all figured out. It's like a rock in a river. You have the eddy behind the rock where there is less movement of water. Same thing here. The droplets can accrue behind the pole where there is an opportunity to slow down and accumulate.

Ice Ice baby, up here 30 with NNW wind

Got some freezing drizzle here now on the elevated parts of cars and a deck. ~31/30