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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z para GFS: 12z National Blend of Models to offset the above:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think MrWolf posted it in the 2/17 - 18 storm thread.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the lee side convergence west of the Frozen Head mts:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually here's a good one for just the RMM diagrams: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CPC_MJOinformation.pdf
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Here are a couple good sources, @PowellVolz
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think we've just had so much low level moisture hanging around the past few days, that the true arctic air, now that it is being allowed to sweep in after yesterdays storm, is wringing it out.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It does blast the warmth in after that though. Yet the sounding over IMBY looks kinda snowy, even though it says sleet. Full saturation in the DGZ, very shallow warm nose that all that forcing and rates might mitigate. At least a sleet/snow mix I would say on this NAM run, anyway: circled area is the sounding:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM coming in south again (last 4 runs):
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually looking at Ventrice's plot's earlier. The filtered 6 variable one looks nice:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Solid dusting now:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I guess I'll get in on the fun too: Feb 13, 2014, when I lived near downtown Knoxville: Thunderhead mountain in March 2013: Jan 2016, looking down on Lee County VA, White Rocks and Sand Cave:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah same here. As always, not as favored for upslope as you, but I woke up at 3 AM to let yoda dog out (see storm thread for Thursday, lol) and it was snowing nicely. Some picturesque pixie dust right now, with lowered visibilities.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Until the 12z suite comes, I shall believe yoda dog:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro precip: 0z Euro precip I'm honestly kind of afraid to try to look much more in depth with this (like 850/ 700mb lows, vorts, etc..), with how many changes still happened at go time with the last system.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It'll be interesting to see if the NAM comes around more at 12z. The SREF NMB members are getting more interested now, at the 9z run, but the ARW members still don't want anything to do with it.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    While the NAM is still looking rainy, it has trended more "thumpy" over the past 5 runs:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro looks very similar to 0z Euro John posted above:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting obs of the energy: the main piece (at least it seems to me) is the first circle. The second one seems to come on a kick it enough to suppress it and keep it from cutting so much. Also still interested to see what the 3rd piece might do as it dives in and rounds the base of the trough.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro still got da thump:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM sticking to its guns: 18z 12z Meanwhile the 18z NAM is in another world: MA folks seem to think that the NAM did take a step, prior to 48 hours, towards the rest of the models, so I'll hug that idea for now.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heavy rain and gusty winds swinging through here right now. Almost like a tstorm line but no thunder
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah getting darker here too now. Almost thought I heard a rumble of thunder.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just noticed in my MSLP gif brought Dandridge Dollop back. : aimed right at us. We need @Stovepipe's analysis.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    And I $*&^ you not, when I click on the pink (presumably heavy snow area) for a sounding: This is what I get, lol :
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    For anyone who wants to see/ discuss, here is the EPS LPs and HPs for the next system: ands the Means 12z EPS MSLPs: 0z MSLPs
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